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[글로벌 이슈] 美 환율조작국 지정 기준 발표…日·中 지정 가능성 커

[글로벌 이슈] 美 환율조작국 지정 기준 발표…日·中 지정 가능성 커

한국과 대만이 환율조작국이라며 트럼프 행정부의 시야를 분산시키려던 일본이 일본·중국 환율조작국 지정 가능성에 놀란 기운이 역력하다. 오바마 전 정권에서는 환율조작국으로 지정된 국가가 없었지만 현행 기준을 적용할 경우 중국과 함께 일본이 지정될 가능성이 크기 때문이다. 23일(현지시간) 스티브 므누신 미국 재무장관은 미 CNBC 방송과의 인터뷰에서 “재무부에는 환율조작을 감시하기 위한 절차가 있었다”며 “주요 교역국의 환율조작국 지정 기준은 기존 방식을 유지할 것”이라고 말했다. 다만 “절차가 끝날 때까지는 결론을 쉽게 내리지 않겠다”며 지정 여부를 신중히 판단한다는 방침을 시사했다고 파이낸셜타임스(FT) 등 주요 외신은 보도했다. 미 재무부는 매년 4월과 10월 발표하는 환율보고서를 통해 환율조작국 여부를 판단·지정한다. 지금까지의 방식은 대미 무역흑자 규모와 외환 개입 여부 등이 기준이 된다. 만약 환율조작국으로 지정될 경우 해당 국가는 제재조치 대상이 된다. 두 달 앞으로 다가온 4월 환율보고서에서 한국이 환율조작국으로 지정될지 여부에 관심이 몰리고 있는 이유다. ◇환율조작국은 중국·일본? 한국도?미 재무부는 작년 10월 환율보고서에서 중국·독일·일본·대만·스위스와 함께 한국을 ‘관찰대상국’으로 올려놨다. FT는 최근 한국과 대만, 싱가포르의 환율조작이 의심된다고 주장하면서 “한국의 경상수지 흑자는 국내총생산(GDP)의 8%로 중국·일본의 3%를 크게 웃돌고 있다”고 지적했다. 하지만 지난 7일 미 상무부가 발표한 2016년 무역통계(통관 기준) 결과는 다르다. 상무부 발표에 따르면 미국이 한국과의 무역에서 발생한 적자는 약 277억 달러(31조3500억원)로 전체 7343억 달러 중 3.7% 수준이다. 반면 대일 무역적자는 689억 달러(약 79조원)로 9.4%에 달한다. 특히 자동차 부문 적자는 526억 달러(전년 대비 37억 달러 상승)로 크게 늘어나며 전체 적자의 80%를 차지하는 것으로 나타났다. 주요 무역적자 국가인 중국은 3470억 달러(392조6000억원)로 전년 대비 5.5% 줄었지만 여전히 전체의 47%를 차지했다. 3위 독일은 649억 달러였다. 일본의 적자폭은 전년과 비슷했지만 상대 국가별로 보면 독일을 제치고 중국에 이어 2위에 올랐다. 3년 만이다. 이 결과만 놓고 보면 중국과 일본을 제치고 한국이 환율조작국으로 지정될 가능성은 낮아 보인다. 하지만 재무부가 오바마 전 정권의 환율보고서 내용을 토대로 환율조작국 지정을 검토할 방침을 밝힌 만큼 쉽사리 안심할 수는 없다. 국제 신용평가사 피치그룹의 시장조사기관 BMI리서치 역시 최근 ‘미국 무역보복 리스트’ 보고서에서 중국과 멕시코 등 트럼프 행정부의 공공연한 타깃 뒤에 일본과 독일이 있고, 그 뒤에 한국이 있다고 지적했다. ‘보호무역주의’를 내걸고 불확실한 정책으로 불안정한 국제 정세 분위기를 조장하고 있는 트럼프 정권이 4월 환율보고서에서 어떤 판단을 내릴지 귀추가 주목된다.2017-02-24 17:28:02
30년 만에 10거래일 연속 최고치 찍은 다우지수…세제개혁 여부가 등락 결정

30년 만에 10거래일 연속 최고치 찍은 다우지수…세제개혁 여부가 등락 결정

트럼프 행정부의 경제정책 기대감이 살아나면서 뉴욕증시가 연일 신기록을 경신하고 있다. 특히 다우지수는 30년 만에 10거래일 연속 사상 최고치를 경신했다. 기술주 중심의 나스닥지수는 5835.51로 전 거래일 대비 25.12포인트(0.43%) 하락했지만 여전히 고가를 유지하고 있다. 23일(현지시간) 미국 뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE)에서 다우존스 30 산업평균지수는 전 거래일보다 34.72포인트(0.17%) 상승한 2만810.32를 기록했다. 지난해 11월 도널드 트럼프 대통령 당선 후 급격히 치솟기 시작한 다우지수는 지난달 25일 사상 첫 2만선을 돌파했다. 트럼프 취임 후 4거래일 만에 심리적 고비로 여겨졌던 2만선을 넘어선 것. 1월 25일 2만68.51로 2만 선을 넘은 다우지수는 약 2주간 등락을 거듭하며 혼조세를 보였지만 8일 이후 상승세를 보이며 23일에는 2만1000 가까이 근접했다. 불과 10일새 400포인트가 늘어난 셈이다. 나스닥지수 역시 꾸준히 상승세를 보이고 있지만 21일 5865.94로 최고치를 찍은 뒤 이틀 연속 하락하고 있다. 하지만 트럼프 대통령 취임 후 약 한 달 새 280.25포인트가 올랐다. 이날 뉴욕증시 상승세는 에너지 관련주가 이끌었다. 산유국 감산 이행과 미국의 원유재고량이 예상을 밑돌며 국제유가가 상승해 에너지주 매수세가 급증했기 때문이다. 미국 에너지정보청(EIA)은 지난 17일까지의 미 주간 원유재고량이 전 주 대비 60만 배럴 늘어난 5억1870만 배럴을 기록했다고 발표했다. 전문가들이 예상했던 340만 배럴 증가에 비해서는 낮은 수치다. 전날 미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)가 공개한 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의록 내용에서 3월 추가 금리인상이 단행되지 않을 것으로 본 투자자들이 주식매입에 나선 것도 한 몫을 했다. 월스트리트저널(WSJ) 등 주요 외신은 스티브 므누신 미 재무장관이 “세제개혁은 매우 중요하며 의회가 8월 전에 승인하기를 바란다”며 투자심리를 자극하는 발언을 한 것도 시세를 뒷받침했다고 분석했다. 한편 므누신 장관은 “강달러는 단기적으로 미국 경제에 명암이 있지만 장기적으로 달러화 가치 상승을 예상한다”며 강달러가 트럼프 행정부의 경제전망에 대한 신용을 보여주는 신호라고 설명했다.2017-02-24 11:57:41
美틸러슨·켈리 멕시코 장관회담…무역·이민정책 논의

美틸러슨·켈리 멕시코 장관회담…무역·이민정책 논의

트럼프 행정부 출범 이래 처음으로 미국과 멕시코 장관이 만나 현안을 논의했다. 22일(현지시간) 멕시코를 방문한 렉스 틸러슨 미국 국무장관과 존 켈리 국토안보장관은 23일 루이스 비데가라이 멕시코 외교부 장관과 회담했다. 양국 장관은 이민문제와 안전보장에 대한 논의가 중점적으로 이뤄진 것으로 전해졌다. 23일 주요 외신에 따르면 특히 이민문제에 대해서는 멕시코가 중남미 국가의 미국 불법이민의 통로가 되고 있다는 점에 양국이 의견을 같이 하면서 향후 지속적인 대화를 해 나가기로 합의했다. 비데가라이 장관은 미국의 반멕시코 정책에 대한 불만을 표출해왔지만 회담 후 한 발 물러난 모습을 보였다. 장관은 기자회견을 통해 “향후 수개월 내에 불법체류를 많이 하는 과테말라 등 중남미 국가나 캐나다와 불법체류자 문제를 종합적으로 해결하기 위해 협의할 것”이라고 말했다. 하지만 미국이 21일 발표한 반(反)이민 행정각서와 불법체류자 단속 강화에 대해서는 우려를 표했다. 미구엘 앙헬 오소리오 멕시코 내무장관은 “불법체류자를 강제 송환하는 것은 물론, 국적을 불문하고 모든 불법체류자를 멕시코로 송환한다는 방침은 억지”라며 멕시코 국경 장벽 문제와 강제송환 방법 등에 대해서는 양국의 지속적인 대화와 협력이 필요하다고 지적했다. 이에 대해 틸러슨 장관은 “불법무기와 마약 유입을 막기 위해서는 대응책을 더 강화시켜야 한다”고 역설하면서도 멕시코 정부가 우려하는 불법체류자 대량 강제송환은 없다고 설명했다. 한편 트럼프 대통령 집권 이전부터 국경장벽 건설과 멕시코 출신 불법체류자 추방, 북미자유무역협정(NAFTA) 재협상 등을 놓고 갈등을 빚고 있는 미국과 멕시코가 대화를 시작했지만 국제 사회에서는 문제가 쉽게 해결되지 않을 것이란 반응이다. 특히 최근 반이민 행정명령에 따라 미국에서 추방된 멕시코 이민자가 자살하는 사건이 발생하면서 멕시코 내 반발이 거세지고 있다.2017-02-24 09:59:06
미국 증시 밸류에이션 우려 '고개'…다우지수 10일 연속 상승

미국 증시 밸류에이션 우려 '고개'…다우지수 10일 연속 상승

미국증시는 23일(현지시간) 혼조세로 마감했다. 다우지수는 1987년 이후 처음으로 10일연속 상승했다. 다우 +0.17%, S&P500 +0.04%, 나스닥 -0.43%, 러셀2000 -0.66%로 거래를 마쳤다. 한화투자증권에 따르면 스티브 므누신 미국 재무장관의 발언에 영향을 받은 모습이다. 이날 발표된 지난주 신규 실업수당 청구건수는 24.4만 건으로 시장예상치(24만 건) 상회. 지난해 12월 FHFA 주택가격 지수는 전월대비 0.4% 상승해 시장예상치(+0.5%) 하회했다. 므누신 재무 장관은 인터뷰에서 행정부와 공화당 지도부 대부분이 세금 개혁안에 동의했다고 언급하기도 했다. 특히 일부에서는 미국 증시의 높은 밸류에이션에 대한 우려가 확산되고 있다는 게 키움증권의 분석이다. 지난 금요일(17일) 시장조사업체 팩트셋이 발표한 수치를 보면 2017년 S&P 500 지수의12개월 선행 P/E는17.6배(5년 평균 P/E 15.2배, 10년 평균 14.4)로 2004년 이후 최고치를 경신했다. 한편, 팩트셋은 S&P500의 2017년 순이익 추정치는 10.2%, 매출은 5.6% 증가를 전망했다. 특히 지난 12월 31일에 비해 순이익 추정치는 0.5% 증가에 그친 반면 S&P500은 17일 기준 5.02% 상승한 점도 높은 밸류에이션 우려가 확산되고 있다고 지적했다. 유럽 주요 증시는 대부분 하락 마감했다. 엇갈린 기업 실적과 전일 공개된 FOMC 회의록에서 조기 금리인상 전망 강화 여파가 지속됐다. 또한 4~5월 프랑스 대선을 앞두고 프랑스의 유로존 탈퇴 우려가 고조되며 투자심리가 위축되기도 했다. 상품의 경우 23일(현지시간) 국제유가(WTI 쿠싱 현물기준)는 전일대비 배럴당 0.81 달러 상승한 54.10달러에 마감했다. 금 선물가격은 FOMC 회의록에서 금리인상 시기에 대한 연준의 단서 부재에 전일대비 1.48% 상승한 온스당 1250.20달러에 마감했다. 서상영 키움증권 연구원은 “국내 증시는 트럼프 정책 불확실성이 높아지고 있다는 점에 부담을 가질 것으로 판단한다”라며 “미 증시 막판 트럼프가 “국경세의 일부 형태를 지지한다”는 발언도 외국인 수급에 악영향을 줄 여지가 높을 수 있다”고 예상했다.2017-02-24 08:13:34
[글로벌이슈] 美금리인상 3월 아니다…달러 약세 당분간 이어질 듯

[글로벌이슈] 美금리인상 3월 아니다…달러 약세 당분간 이어질 듯

미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)가 “조만간 금리인상을 하는 게 적절하다”는 입장을 밝혔지만 시장에서는 3월 금리인상 가능성은 높지 않다고 내다보고 있다. 22일(현지시간) 연준이 공개한 1월 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 정례회의 결과에 따르면 다수 위원들이 고용과 물가 지표가 예상 수준을 유지할 경우 비교적 가까운 시일 내에 추가 금리인상을 단행하자는 데 의견을 모았다. 연준 위원들은 일단 미국의 경기 전망과 금융정책이 12월 회의 당시와 거의 변하지 않았다는 이유로 금리인상을 유보한 것으로 전해졌다. 이날 회의록 공개 후 시장에서는 연준이 내달 금리를 인상할 가능성이 높다는 반응을 보이기도 했다. 하지만 금융시장 전문가들은 미국의 금리인상이 완만한 속도로 이뤄질 것으로 내다봤다. 회의록에서 연준 위원들이 사용한 표현이 당장 3월에 금리인상을 하자는 뜻이 아니라는 것이다. 이들은 오히려 5월이나 6월 금리인상 가능성이 더 높다고 지적했다. 한편 연준이 추가 금리인상을 서두르고 있다는 언론 보도와 트럼프 행정부의 경제정책 불확실성이 다시 도마 위에 오르며 안전자산인 엔화를 사들이는 움직임이 일었다. 도쿄 외환시장에서 달러당 113.31엔에 거래를 시작한 엔화환율은 한때 113.44엔까지 올랐지만 3월 금리인상 전망이 점차 사라지면서 하락세를 보였다. 환율과 통화가치는 반대로 엔화환율이 떨어지며 엔화가치는 소폭 상승했다. 반면 주요 6개국 통화 대비 달러화의 평균 가치를 나타내는 달러 인덱스는 전 거래일 대비 0.2% 하락한 101.23을 기록했다. 외환시장 전문가들은 미국 금리인상 속도에 대한 확신이 서지 않는 상황에서 극우 세력이 지지를 얻고 있는 유럽의 정치 리스크까지 겹쳐 당분간 달러 강세를 기대하기는 어렵다는 반응이다. 특히 연준이 만약 3월에 금리를 올린다 해도 달러 강세는 일시적인 현상으로 끝날 가능성이 높다.2017-02-23 17:02:23
마지막 日반도체 제조사 사라지나…도시바 반도체 인수전 ‘삼성 대항마’ 속속 출사표

마지막 日반도체 제조사 사라지나…도시바 반도체 인수전 ‘삼성 대항마’ 속속 출사표

경영 정상화를 위해 원자력발전사업 몸집 줄이기에 나선 일본 도시바(東芝)가 반도체 사업 매각 규모를 50% 이상으로 늘린다. 도시바는 24일 열린 이사회에서 당초 20% 미만으로 제한했던 반도체 사업 매각 규모를 50% 이상으로 늘리고 경영권까지도 넘길 수 있음을 시사했다. 이에 따라 향후 매각 협상도 본격화할 것으로 예상된다. 한때 도시바 매출의 대부분을 차지했던 반도체 사업 매각이 초읽기에 들어가면서 일본 정부도 속이 타고 있다. 도시바 반도체가 해외 기업에 매각될 경우 일본에는 반도체 제조사가 하나도 남지 않게 되기 때문이다. ◇ 57년 만에 1부 상장기업서 강등 위기도쿄 증권거래소는 3월 말 경 도시바의 부채가 자산을 초과하는 자본잠식 상태에 빠질 것으로 내다보고 제1부에서 제2부로 강등시킨다는 방침이다. 이로써 도시바는 57년간 지켜온 1부 상장기업 지위를 잃게 될 위기에 처했다. 당초 도시바는 눈더미처럼 불어난 채무를 해결하기 위해 3월 말까지 19.9%의 지분을 매각한다는 계획이었다. 하지만 매각 규모를 50% 이상으로 늘려 1조 엔(약 10조원) 이상의 자금을 조달하는 방향으로 계획을 바꿨다. 이에 따라 3월 중 반도체 사업 매각 1차 입찰을 실시하고 5월(늦어도 6월)까지 매각 대상을 최종 선정한다는 계획이다. 도시바는 올해 안에 매각작업을 완료하기 위해 현재 직원의 고용 유지 등 매각 조건에 대해서 마무리 작업을 하고 있는 것으로 전해졌다. 한편 산업계 일각에서는 새로운 입찰에서 3분의 2 이상의 주식을 매각하는 방안도 검토 중이라는 전망이 나오고 있다. ◇ 해외 매각 가능성 높아…‘삼성 대항마’에게 매각될까?도시바의 반도체 사업 매각이 본격화하면서 매각 대상자에 대한 관심 또한 깊어지고 있다. 현재 웨스턴디지털(WD)과 마이크론 테크놀로지, 애플, 마이크로소프트(MS)와 대만 반도체회사 TSMC 등이 인수 후보로 나서고 있는 것으로 전해졌다. 일본 정부의 해외 기업 매각이라는 우려가 현실이 되고 있는 셈이다. 이와 함께 처음부터 관심을 보여 온 대만 홍하이정밀공업(폭스콘)과 SK하이닉스 등도 전면에 나설 가능성이 높은 것으로 점쳐졌다. 일본 현지 언론들은 “매각 규모가 50% 이상이 될 것이 거의 확실시되면서 해외 기업들이 입찰에 의욕을 나타내고 있다”며 “대부분의 기업은 메모리반도체나 파운드리를 핵심 사업으로 하는 ‘삼성전자 대항마’”라고 보도했다. 스마트폰이나 컴퓨터에 탑재하는 ‘DRAM’ 점유율은 삼성이 약 45%로 압도적인 선두에 서있다. 도시바의 핵심 사업인 ‘NAND형 플래시메모리’ 분야에서도 삼성은 약 30%의 점유율로 도시바(20%)와 WD(15%)를 제치고 1위를 차지하고 있다. 결국 삼성의 시장지배적 지위에 불만을 갖고 있는 해외 기업들이 삼성의 독주를 막기 위해서라도 적극적으로 도시바 지분을 사들일 것이란 의미로 해석된다. 이와 관련 도시바 고위 관계자는 “복수 기업에게 주식을 매각할 경우 ‘삼성’이라는 총론은 일치하겠지만 각론으로 들어가면 이해관계에 문제가 발생할 것”이라며 “최선의 파트너를 선택하기 위한 작업이 쉽지는 않을 것”이라고 말했다.2017-02-23 13:58:41
트럼프 ‘보호주의’ 정책, 엔화 약세 효과 유발

트럼프 ‘보호주의’ 정책, 엔화 약세 효과 유발

일본 기업의 결산이 발표되는 3월은 매년 엔화 강세 현상이 나타났지만 올해는 상황이 다를 것으로 예상된다. 결산이 집중된 3월에는 일본 기업들이 해외에서 벌어들인 수익을 일본으로 보내는 움직임이 강해진다. 이 과정에서 달러를 팔고 엔화를 사들이는 거래가 이뤄져 ‘엔고’가 발생한다. 하지만 ‘엔화 약세 유도’를 비난하던 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령의 정책이 오히려 엔화 강세 압력을 약화시키고 있다는게 니혼게이자이신문의 분석이다. 일본 외환시장에서도 트럼프 대통령의 ‘보호무역주의’ 관련 정책들이 엔화 강세 압력을 줄이고 있다고 지적했다. 트럼프 대통령의 ‘미국우선주의’ 정책으로 일본 기업들이 미국 내 생산을 확대할 수밖에 없는 상황에서 법인세 등 ‘세제개혁’ 정책까지 더해지면서 미국에서 벌어들인 달러를 일본에 송금하지 않고 미국 내 투자에 사용할 가능성이 높기 때문이다. 특히 이르면 이번 주 발표될 것으로 예상되는 ‘세제개편안’ 중 쟁점이 되고 있는 ‘국경조정세’도 엔화 약세의 배경이 된다는 판단이다. 국경조정세는 판매처 기준으로 소비세를 조정하는 것으로, 수입품에는 국산품과 같은 소비세를 부과하고 수출품의 세금은 면제해준다. 결국 수입을 억제하고 수출을 촉진하는 제도다. 하지만 기업의 외환 수급이 엔화 약세를 오래 유지시키지는 못할 것으로 보인다. 엔화환율이 트럼프 대통령의 발언에 등락을 일희일비하는 만큼 당분간은 엔화 강세 압력을 저지하는 재료가 되겠지만 향후 추이를 지켜봐야 한다는 의미다. 지난해 11월 트럼프 대통령 당선 당시 달러당 105엔대 중반이었던 엔화환율은 12월 15일 118.18로 최고점을 찍은 후 올 들어 등락을 거듭하며 하락곡선을 그리고 있다. 이날 도쿄 외환시장에서 엔화환율은 전 거래일 대비 0.12엔 오른 113.19에 거래되고 있다. 전날 미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)가 조만간 추가 금리인상을 시사하면서 안전자산인 엔화 매수가 이뤄지고 있는 모양새다.2017-02-23 10:30:48
FOMC 의사록 공개 후 달러약세 전환, 미국증시 혼조세

FOMC 의사록 공개 후 달러약세 전환, 미국증시 혼조세

미국증시는 지난 22일(현지시간) 다우 +0.16%, 나스닥 -0.09%, S&P500 -0.11%, 러셀 2000 -0.46%등 혼조세로 마감했다. 한화투자증권에 따르면 1월 FOMC 회의록의 연준 위원들 발언에 영향을 받은 모습이다. FOMC 회의록에 따르면 "아주 가까운 시일에 금리 인상이 이뤄질 수있다"는 견해가 우세했다. 일부 위원들은 차기 정례회의에서 기준금리가 인상되는것이 적절할 수 있다고 진단했다. 미국의 경제 개선과 트럼프 미국 대통령의 경제 정책이 예상보다 더 빠른 물가상승을 불러올 수 있다는 가능성을 근거로 제시했다. 다만 동시에 트럼프 정부의 세금 삭감과 재정 지출 확대정책을 둘러싼 불확실성에 대한 우려도 밝혔다. 시장이 우려했던 강한 매파적인 내용보다는 12월 FOMC 당시 성명서와 크게 다르지 않았던 모습이라는 게 키움증권의 분석이다. 단 옐런 연준 의장이 지난 의회 청문회에서 "다음 회의들에서 금리를 인상할 수 있다"고 주장하자 시장은 3월 금리인상 가능성도 염두에 두면서 달러 및 국채금리가 상승했다. 이에 따라 시장 참여자들은 FOMC 의사록에 3월 금리인상 신호가 있는지 주목하는 모습이다. 유럽증시는 유니레버(+3.40%) 로이드뱅크(+4.24%) 등 실적 호전과 주주보상을 표명한 기업들의 강세로 주요 선진국은 상승했다. 반면 아르셀로미탈(-1.80%) 등 원자재주와 유니크레딧(-2.07%) 등 은행주가 하락하며 남유럽 국가들은 부진했다. 상품의 경우 22일(현지시간) 국제유가는 배럴당 0.77달러 하락한 53.29달러에 마감했다. 금 선물가격은 연준위원들의 발언에 금리 인상 전망이 강화되며 전일대비 0.44% 하락한 온스당 1232.00달러로 거래를 마쳤다. 서상영 키움증권 연구원은 “ 일부 위원이 금리인상가능성은 언급한 점이 부담이 되었다”라며 “이는 23일 국내 증시에도 부담으로 작용할 가능성이 높다는 판단이다”고 말했다.2017-02-23 08:32:00
[경제박사 김대호] FOMC 의사록 읽는 법, 환율 뉴욕증시 국제유가 금시세 대미무역흑자 코스닥 코스피 상관관계 주목...재닛 옐런 FRB 금리인상의 경제학

[경제박사 김대호] FOMC 의사록 읽는 법, 환율 뉴욕증시 국제유가 금시세 대미무역흑자 코스닥 코스피 상관관계 주목...재닛 옐런 FRB 금리인상의 경제학

미국 연준(Fed)의 통화정책 회의 의사록이 주목을 끌고 있다. 의사록이란 연준의 최고 의결기구인 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)에서 어떤 일이 있었는지를 기록해 놓은 일종의 회의록이다. FOMC 회의가 있은 지 3주째 되는 날 발표한다. 통상적으로 연준은 FOMC 당일 정책성명서를 발표한다. 이 성명서에서는 금리 변동 내역과 그 결정의 배경 등을 간략하게 언급한다. 반면 의사록에서는 모든 토론내용을 소상하게 밝힌다. 향후의 통화정책방향을 예측하기 위해서는 이 FOMC 의사록에 드러나 연준 의원들의 솔직하면서도 자세한 의견을 파악하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 3월 또는 6월에 금리인상을 단행할 것인지 그 여부는 23일 새벽에 발표되는 FOMC 의사록을 참고할 필요가 있다. 미국 FOMC 의사록 -Minutes-1993년부터 작성 발표 -연준위원 발언록 -회의분위기 파악 -차기 FOMC 예측 자료 -FOMC 회의 3주후 공개 (2004년부터) 다음은 연준 2월 초에 발표된 FOMC 2016년 12월 회의 의사록 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 13-14, 2016 FOMC MinutesSummary of Economic ProjectionsA joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December 13, 2016, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 14, 2016, at 9:00 a.m.1 PRESENT: Janet L. Yellen, ChairWilliam C. Dudley, Vice ChairmanLael BrainardJames BullardStanley FischerEsther L. GeorgeLoretta J. MesterJerome H. PowellEric RosengrenDaniel K. Tarullo Charles L. Evans, Patrick Harker, Robert S. Kaplan, Neel Kashkari, and Michael Strine, Alternate Members of the Federal Open Market Committee Jeffrey M. Lacker, Dennis P. Lockhart, and John C. Williams, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, respectively Brian F. Madigan, SecretaryMatthew M. Luecke, Deputy SecretaryDavid W. Skidmore, Assistant SecretaryMichelle A. Smith, Assistant SecretaryScott G. Alvarez, General CounselMichael Held, Deputy General CounselSteven B. Kamin, EconomistThomas Laubach, EconomistDavid W. Wilcox, Economist Thomas A. Connors, David E. Lebow, Stephen A. Meyer, Christopher J. Waller, and William Wascher, Associate Economists Simon Potter, Manager, System Open Market Account Lorie K. Logan, Deputy Manager, System Open Market Account Robert deV. Frierson, Secretary, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors Matthew J. Eichner,2 Director, Division of Reserve Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board of Governors; Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, Board of Governors Margie Shanks,3 Deputy Secretary, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors James A. Clouse, Deputy Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Andreas Lehnert, Deputy Director, Division of Financial Stability, Board of Governors; Beth Anne Wilson, Deputy Director, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors Trevor A. Reeve, Senior Special Adviser to the Chair, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors David Bowman, Andrew Figura, Joseph W. Gruber, Ann McKeehan, and David Reifschneider, Special Advisers to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors Antulio N. Bomfim, Robert J. Tetlow, and Joyce K. Zickler, Senior Advisers, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Wayne Passmore, Senior Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Brian M. Doyle, Associate Director, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors; Stacey Tevlin, Associate Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Stephanie R. Aaronson, Assistant Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors; Christopher J. Gust, Assistant Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Don Kim, Adviser, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Karen M. Pence, Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Penelope A. Beattie,4 Assistant to the Secretary, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Edward Herbst and Lubomir Petrasek, Principal Economists, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Achilles Sangster II, Information Management Analyst, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Mark L. Mullinix, First Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond David Altig, Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Michael Dotsey, Evan F. Koenig, Spencer Krane, and Mark E. Schweitzer, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, and Cleveland, respectively Terry Fitzgerald, Giovanni Olivei, Argia M. Sbordone, Mark Spiegel, and Alexander L. Wolman, Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis, Boston, New York, San Francisco, and Richmond, respectively Willem Van Zandweghe, Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Rules Regarding Availability of InformationThe Committee unanimously voted to amend its Rules Regarding Availability of Information (Rules) in order to comply with the FOIA Improvement Act of 2016 and to make a number of other technical changes.5 The amended Rules would be published in the Federal Register as an interim final rule, which would become effective immediately on publication. The Committee anticipated finalization of the Rules after any appropriate changes were incorporated based on comments received from the public during the 60-day comment period following the Federal Register notice. Secretary's note: The amended Rules were published in the Federal Register on December 27, 2016. Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market OperationsThe manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) reported on developments in U.S. and global financial markets during the period since the Committee met on November 1-2, 2016. Nominal yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury securities rose substantially over the period, reflecting both higher real yields and an increase in inflation compensation. The value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets rose, U.S. equity indexes increased considerably, and credit spreads on U.S. corporate bonds narrowed. Market pricing and survey results indicated that market participants had come to see a high probability of an increase of 25 basis points in the FOMC's target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, and that the path of the federal funds rate anticipated by market participants for coming years had steepened. Surveys of market participants indicated that revised expectations for government spending and tax policy following the U.S. elections in early November were seen as the most important reasons, among several factors, for the increase in longer-term Treasury yields, the climb in equity valuations, and the rise in the dollar. The manager also reported on developments in money markets and open market operations. Market interest rates on overnight repurchase agreements (repos) fell during the intermeeting period. Market participants pointed to a number of factors contributing to the decline, including lower demands for funding by securities dealers and the ample availability of financing from government-only money market funds (MMFs). The decline in repo rates, together with the shift of MMF assets toward government-only funds, had likely boosted usage of the System's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility over the period. In contrast to the decline in interest rates for secured money market transactions, the effective federal funds rate generally remained near the middle of the FOMC's 1/4 to 1/2 percent target range. The manager also reported on the Open Market Desk's regular review of operational readiness for a range of open market operations. By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk's domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System's account during the intermeeting period. Staff Review of the Economic SituationThe information reviewed for the December 13-14 meeting indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) was expanding at a moderate pace over the second half of the year and that labor market conditions had continued to strengthen in recent months. Consumer price inflation increased further above its pace early in the year but was still running below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent, restrained in part by earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Taken together, a range of recent indicators showed that labor market conditions had tightened further. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased at a solid pace in October and November, and the unemployment rate declined, reaching 4.6 percent in November. The share of workers employed part time for economic reasons decreased; however, both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio edged down on net. The rates of private-sector job openings, of hiring, and of quits were generally little changed in September and October at levels above those seen during much of the current economic expansion. The four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits remained low. Labor productivity in the business sector was flat over the four quarters ending in the third quarter. Measures of labor compensation continued to rise at a moderate rate. Compensation per hour in the business sector rose 3 percent over the four quarters ending in the third quarter, and average hourly earnings for all employees increased 2-1/2 percent over the 12 months ending in November. The unemployment rates for African Americans, for Hispanics, and for whites all declined in recent months. The unemployment rates for African Americans and for Hispanics remained above the rate for whites but were close to the levels seen just before the most recent recession. Total industrial production was flat in October. Both manufacturing production and mining output increased, but the output of utilities declined markedly because of unseasonably warm weather in October. Automakers' assembly schedules suggested that motor vehicle production would be roughly flat in the near term, and broader indicators of manufacturing production, such as the new orders indexes from national and regional manufacturing surveys, pointed toward only modest gains in factory output in the coming months. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) appeared to be rising at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter. Consumer expenditures increased modestly in October but were restrained by a decline in spending for energy services that reflected unseasonably warm weather in that month. Unit sales of light motor vehicles were higher in October and November than average monthly sales in the third quarter. The components of the nominal retail sales data used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct its estimate of PCE rose moderately in November. Recent readings on key factors that influence consumer spending--such as continued gains in employment, real disposable personal income, and households' net worth--were consistent with moderate real PCE growth for the fourth quarter as a whole. In addition, consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers moved higher in November and early December. Recent information on housing market activity suggested that real residential investment was picking up in the fourth quarter after decreasing in the previous two quarters. Starts for both new single-family homes and multifamily units rose substantially in October. Building permit issuance for new single-family homes--which tends to be a good indicator of the underlying trend in construction--also increased. Sales of existing homes advanced, although new home sales dipped. Real private expenditures for business equipment and intellectual property seemed to be soft early in the fourth quarter. Nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft edged down in October. However, new orders of these capital goods rose and were running above the level of shipments, suggesting a pickup in business spending for equipment in the near term. Nominal business expenditures for nonresidential structures declined in October, but the number of oil and gas rigs in operation, an indicator of spending for structures in the drilling and mining sector, continued to edge up through early December. Real government purchases looked to be rising modestly in the fourth quarter. Nominal federal government spending in October and November pointed to increases in real defense purchases in the fourth quarter. The payrolls of state and local governments expanded, on balance, in October and November, and nominal construction spending by these governments rose in October. The U.S. international trade deficit widened in October after narrowing in September. After increasing in September, exports fell substantially in October, reflecting declines in exports of agricultural products, consumer goods, and industrial supplies. Imports in October retraced their September decline, as imports of consumer goods and capital goods rose. The available trade data suggested that real net exports would make a negative contribution to real U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Total U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased almost 1-1/2 percent over the 12 months ending in October, partly restrained by recent decreases in consumer food prices and earlier declines in consumer energy prices. Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose about 1-3/4 percent over the same period, held down in part by decreases in the prices of non-energy imports over a portion of this period and by the pass-through of earlier declines in energy prices into the prices of other goods and services. Over the same 12-month period, total consumer prices as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose a bit more than 1-1/2 percent, while core CPI inflation was around 2 percent. The Michigan survey measure of median longer-run inflation expectations edged up, on net, in November and early December. The measure of longer-run inflation expectations for PCE prices from the Survey of Professional Forecasters was unchanged in the fourth quarter, and measures of longer-run inflation expectations from the Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants were also unchanged in December. Foreign real GDP growth rebounded in the third quarter from an unusually subdued pace in the second quarter. This bounceback was driven primarily by stronger economic growth in Canada and Mexico, two countries where the second-quarter weakness was most pronounced. In the advanced foreign economies (AFEs), recent indicators were consistent with a more moderate pace of economic activity in the fourth quarter. Economic growth also appeared to slow after its uptick in the third quarter in the emerging market economies (EMEs), as indicators for Mexico suggested a return to a more sustainable pace of economic growth and as investment decelerated in China. Inflation increased in most AFEs in recent months but remained significantly below central bank targets. Inflation in the EMEs also moved up, driven largely by a rebound in Chinese food prices and, in some countries, by the effects of currency depreciation. Staff Review of the Financial SituationOver the intermeeting period, incoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications reinforced market participants' expectations for an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the December meeting. Asset price movements as well as changes in the expected path for U.S. monetary policy beyond December appeared to be driven largely by expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy in the aftermath of U.S. elections. Nominal Treasury yields rose across the maturity spectrum, and measures of inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities continued to move up. Meanwhile, broad equity price indexes increased, and credit spreads on corporate bonds narrowed. Most private borrowing rates increased somewhat, but financing conditions for nonfinancial firms and households remained broadly accommodative. Market expectations for an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the December meeting rose over the intermeeting period. By the end of the period, quotes on federal funds futures contracts, without adjustment for term premiums, suggested that market participants saw a nearly 95 percent probability of a rate hike. In addition, the expected federal funds rate path over the next few years implied by quotes on overnight index swap (OIS) rates steepened. Most of the steepening of the expected policy path occurred following the U.S. elections, reportedly in part reflecting investors' perception that the incoming Congress and Administration would enact significant fiscal stimulus measures. Market-based measures of uncertainty regarding monetary policy at horizons beyond one year moved up, suggesting that some of the firming in OIS rates could reflect a rise in term premiums. Consistent with market-based estimates, respondents to the Desk's December surveys of primary dealers and market participants assigned a probability near 90 percent to a rate hike in December. Nominal Treasury yields moved up considerably since the November FOMC meeting. Intermediate- and longer-term yields were boosted by roughly equal increases in real yields and inflation compensation. Measures of inflation compensation extended an upward trajectory that began around midyear. Changes in market quotes for inflation caps and floors suggested that the rise in inflation compensation reflected in part higher costs of protection against above-target inflation outcomes. The rise in inflation compensation appeared to be spurred in part by the recent climb in oil prices, with a notable jump after OPEC's agreement at its November 30 meeting to cut production. Broad U.S. equity price indexes rose over the intermeeting period, apparently boosted by investors' expectations of stronger earnings growth and improved risk sentiment, with much of the rally coming after the U.S. elections. Share prices for the financial sector outperformed the broader market, while stock prices in sectors that typically benefit from lower interest rates, such as utilities, underperformed. Implied volatility in equity markets decreased, and yield spreads of nonfinancial corporate bonds over those of comparable-maturity Treasury securities narrowed for both investment- and speculative-grade firms. Available reports suggested that earnings for firms in the S&P 500 index increased in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the improvement in earnings was broad based across sectors. Money market flows continued to stabilize over the intermeeting period following outsized movements in the period before implementation of MMF reforms in mid-October. Assets under management at government MMFs rose modestly, while assets at prime MMFs were about unchanged. In addition, outstanding levels of commercial paper (CP) and negotiable certificates of deposit were stable. The effective federal funds rate remained well within the FOMC's target range. Rates on overnight Eurodollar deposits, CP, and other short-term unsecured instruments were close to the federal funds rate. Overnight Treasury repo rates declined in mid-November but stayed above the ON RRP offering rate. Rates on term money market instruments increased, consistent with firming expectations for a December rate hike. Financing conditions for nonfinancial firms remained generally accommodative. Although gross issuance of corporate bonds slowed notably in October and November from the brisk pace in the third quarter, the decrease in corporate bond spreads after the U.S. elections suggests that the lower issuance did not reflect a tightening of financial conditions. In addition, growth in commercial and industrial loans from banks picked up after having dipped some during the third quarter, issuance of leveraged loans by nonbanks was robust, and CP outstanding at nonfinancial firms increased on balance. The credit quality of nonfinancial corporations remained solid. The volume of corporate bond rating downgrades in October and November outpaced that of upgrades but was moderate compared with rates seen in the first half of the year. Default rates and expected year-ahead default rates for nonfinancial firms declined modestly over the intermeeting period, although both remained somewhat elevated compared with their ranges in recent years. Indicators of supply and demand conditions for small business credit were generally unchanged over the past quarter, with demand appearing to remain weak. Gross issuance of municipal bonds remained solid in October, and the credit quality of state and local governments was stable, as the number of ratings downgrades only moderately outpaced the number of upgrades in October and November. Yields on general obligation bonds rose somewhat more than those on comparable-maturity Treasury securities over the intermeeting period, reportedly reflecting expected reductions in the tax benefit of municipal bonds. Financing conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) also remained largely accommodative. The average rate of growth of CRE loans at banks continued to be strong in October and November. Spreads on commercial mortgage-backed securities narrowed a little over the intermeeting period, and issuance of such securities continued to outpace that of the first half of 2016. The interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate residential mortgages moved up in line with Treasury yields, although the rate remained low by historical standards and mortgage availability appeared little changed. Likely in part because of the increase in mortgage rates, refinance originations decreased in November, but purchase originations were little changed. Consumer credit continued to be readily available for most borrowers, and overall loan balances increased about 6 percent over the 12 months ending in September. In the subprime sector, credit card lending standards appeared to remain tight, and extensions of new credit to subprime auto loan borrowers edged down in the third quarter. Measures of consumer credit quality were little changed in the third quarter. Foreign financial markets responded primarily to U.S. developments over the intermeeting period, as market participants assessed the effects of potential policy changes resulting from the U.S. elections on foreign economies. Spillovers from U.S. markets lifted yields and equity prices in most AFEs, but higher yields in the United States seemed to weigh on investor sentiment toward EMEs, where prices of risky assets declined. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar appreciated notably against both AFE and EME currencies. In particular, the dollar strengthened about 10 percent against the Japanese yen and 5 percent against the Mexican peso. The declines in EME currencies and risky asset prices were reportedly driven by higher U.S. yields as well as by uncertainty about possible changes in U.S. trade policies. Currency weakness prompted some EME central banks, such as the Bank of Mexico and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, to tighten monetary policy. However, the Central Bank of Brazil eased monetary policy to support economic growth. In the euro area, investors were attentive to the constitutional referendum in Italy and the December meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). In Italy, the "No" vote on constitutional reform and the subsequent resignation of the prime minister raised concerns that recapitalization of the country's banking sector would become more difficult. However, these developments left little imprint on financial markets on net. At its December meeting, the ECB extended its asset purchase program for a longer period of time than market participants anticipated while reducing the pace of asset purchases. In addition, the minimum maturity for eligible securities was lowered, and the limitation on purchases of securities with a yield below the deposit facility rate was relaxed. As a result, sovereign yield curves in the euro area steepened somewhat. Staff Economic OutlookIn the U.S. economic projection prepared by the staff for the December FOMC meeting, the near-term forecast was little changed from the projection prepared for the November meeting. Real GDP growth in the second half of 2016 was still expected to be faster than in the first half. The staff's forecast for real GDP growth over the next several years was slightly higher, on balance, largely reflecting the effects of the staff's provisional assumption that fiscal policy would be more expansionary in the coming years. These effects were substantially counterbalanced by the restraint from the higher assumed paths for longer-term interest rates and the foreign exchange value of the dollar. The staff projected that real GDP would expand at a modestly faster pace than potential output in 2017 through 2019. The unemployment rate was forecast to edge down gradually, on net, and to continue to run below the staff's estimate of its longer-run natural rate through the end of 2019; the path for the unemployment rate was a little lower than in the previous projection. The near-term forecast for consumer price inflation was somewhat higher than in the previous projection, reflecting recent increases in energy prices. Beyond the near term, the inflation forecast was little revised. The staff continued to project that inflation would edge up over the next several years, as food and energy prices along with the prices of non-energy imports were expected to begin steadily rising in 2017. However, inflation was projected to be marginally below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent in 2019. The staff viewed the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average of the past 20 years. The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that monetary policy appeared to be better positioned to offset large positive shocks than substantial adverse ones. In addition, the staff continued to see the risks to the forecast from developments abroad as skewed to the downside. Consistent with the downside risks to aggregate demand, the staff viewed the risks to its outlook for the unemployment rate as tilted to the upside. The risks to the projection for inflation were seen as roughly balanced. The downside risks from the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations may have edged lower or that the dollar could appreciate more than anticipated were seen as roughly counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to continue operating above its long-run potential. Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic OutlookIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of the Board of Governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real output growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2016 through 2019 and over the longer run, based on their individual assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate.6 The longer-run projections represented each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. These projections and policy assessments are described in the Summary of Economic Projections, which is an addendum to these minutes. In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, participants agreed that information received over the intermeeting period indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace since midyear. Job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined. Household spending had been rising moderately, but business fixed investment remained soft. Inflation had increased since earlier in the year but was still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation had moved up considerably but still were low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months. Participants expected that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions would strengthen somewhat further. Inflation was expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy prices and non-energy import prices dissipated and the labor market strengthened further. Participants indicated that recently available economic data had been broadly in line with their expectations, and they judged that near-term risks to the economic outlook appeared roughly balanced. Moreover, participants generally made only modest changes to their forecasts for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation. About half of the participants incorporated an assumption of more expansionary fiscal policy in their forecasts. In their discussion of their economic forecasts, participants emphasized their considerable uncertainty about the timing, size, and composition of any future fiscal and other economic policy initiatives as well as about how those policies might affect aggregate demand and supply. Several participants pointed out that, depending on the mix of tax, spending, regulatory, and other possible policy changes, economic growth might turn out to be faster or slower than they currently anticipated. However, almost all also indicated that the upside risks to their forecasts for economic growth had increased as a result of prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years. Many participants underscored the need to continue to weigh other risks and uncertainties attending the economic outlook. In that regard, several noted upside risks to U.S. economic activity from the potential for better-than-expected economic growth abroad or an acceleration of domestic business investment. Among the downside risks cited were the possibility of additional appreciation of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, financial vulnerabilities in some foreign economies, and the proximity of the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound. Several participants also commented on the uncertainty about the outlook for productivity growth or about the potential effects of tight labor markets on labor supply and inflation. For some participants, the greater upside risks to economic growth, the upward movement in inflation compensation over recent months, or the possibility of further increases in oil prices had increased the upside risks to their inflation forecasts. However, several others pointed out that a further rise in the dollar might continue to hold down inflation. Participants generally agreed that they should continue to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. Regarding the household sector, the available information indicated that consumer spending had been rising at a moderate rate, on balance, since midyear. Participants cited a number of factors likely to support continued moderate gains in consumer spending. Consumer confidence remained positive. The outlook was for further solid gains in jobs and income, and household balance sheets had improved. The personal saving rate was still relatively high, and household wealth had been boosted by ongoing gains in housing and equity prices. In the housing market, recent data on starts and permits for new residential construction suggested a firming in residential investment after two quarters of decline. Several participants commented that housing activity appeared to be gaining momentum in their Districts, and it was noted that the rate of new construction still appeared to be low relative to levels that would be expected based on the longer-run rate of household formation. The outlook for the business sector improved over the intermeeting period. Although nonresidential investment was still weak and equipment spending had been flat in the third quarter, orders for nondefense capital goods and the number of drilling rigs in operation had both turned up recently. A couple of participants reported plans for a pickup in capital spending by businesses in their Districts, driven by stronger demand and increasing revenues. Surveys and information gathered from contacts in several Districts indicated an improvement in manufacturing activity as well as expectations for further gains in factory production in the near term. And the recent firming in oil prices, if sustained, was anticipated to boost domestic energy production. In contrast, conditions in the agricultural sector remained depressed, and a couple of reports highlighted softer activity in some service-sector industries. More generally, participants reported that many of their District business contacts expressed greater optimism about the economic outlook, and several participants commented that the improved sentiment could spur stronger investment spending. Some contacts thought that their businesses could benefit from possible changes in federal spending, tax, and regulatory policies, while others were uncertain about the outlook for significant government policy changes or were concerned that their businesses might be adversely affected by some of the proposals under discussion. Labor market conditions continued to improve over the intermeeting period. Monthly increases in nonfarm payroll employment averaged nearly 180,000 over the three months ending in November, in line with the average pace of job creation over the past year. The unemployment rate dropped markedly to 4.6 percent in November; a few participants suggested that part of the decline might be reversed in coming months. Most participants viewed the cumulative progress in the labor market as having brought labor market conditions to or close to those consistent with the Committee's maximum-employment objective. Over the past year, broad measures of labor underutilization that include both the unemployed and workers marginally attached to the labor force had trended lower, the labor force participation rate had been relatively steady despite downward pressure from demographic trends, and layoffs had fallen to low levels. National surveys reported that job availability was high and that firms were increasingly finding their job openings hard to fill. Some participants commented that some businesses in their Districts were experiencing shortages of skilled workers in some occupations or were needing to offer higher wages to fill positions. However, some others noted that aggregate measures of wages were still rising at a subdued pace, suggesting that upward pressure on wages had not become widespread. Participants expected the labor market to strengthen somewhat further over the medium run, with almost all anticipating that the unemployment rate over the next couple of years would run below their estimates of its longer-run normal level. Some participants saw the possibility that an extended period during which labor markets remained relatively tight could continue to shrink remaining margins of underutilization, including the still-high level of prime-age workers outside the labor force and elevated levels of involuntary part-time employment and long-duration unemployment. A few added that continued gradual strengthening in labor markets would help return inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective. But some other participants were uncertain that a period of tight labor utilization would yield lasting labor market benefits or were concerned that it risked a buildup of inflationary pressures. Most participants expected that if economic growth remained moderate, as they projected, the unemployment rate would be only modestly below their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment over the next few years, but several anticipated a more substantial undershoot. A few participants noted the uncertainty surrounding real-time estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment, and it was pointed out that geographic variation in labor market conditions contributed to that uncertainty. In discussing the possible implications of a more significant undershooting of the longer-run normal rate, many participants emphasized that, as the economic outlook evolved, timely adjustments to monetary policy could be required to achieve and maintain both the Committee's maximum-employment and inflation objectives. Participants generally viewed the information on inflation received over the intermeeting period as reinforcing their expectation that inflation would rise to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. The 12-month change in the headline PCE price index moved up further to 1.4 percent in October, as the rise in energy prices since the spring offset much of the decline earlier in the year. Although the headline measure was still below 2 percent, it had increased more than 1 percentage point over the past year. Core PCE price inflation had also moved up moderately over the past year, and, over the 12 months ending in October, it was 1.7 percent for a third consecutive month. Median 5- to-10-year inflation expectations in the Michigan survey were, on balance, stable in November and early December, just above the low recorded in October. Market-based measures of inflation compensation had moved up considerably over the intermeeting period. A few participants added that other readings from financial markets, such as implied probabilities of various inflation outcomes derived from inflation derivatives, pricing in the inflation swaps market, and the apparent upward shift of the estimated term premium in the 10-year Treasury yield, suggested that the risks to the inflation outlook had become more balanced around the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. A couple of participants noted that the recent firming in oil prices might have contributed to the changes in these market-based measures. Several, however, pointed out that market-based measures of inflation compensation were still low or that downside risks to inflation remained, given the recent further appreciation of the dollar. Most participants attributed the substantial changes in financial market conditions over the intermeeting period--including the increase in longer-term interest rates, the strengthening of the dollar, the rise in equity prices, and the narrowing of credit spreads--to expectations for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years or to possible reductions in corporate tax rates. Many participants expressed the need for caution in evaluating the implications of recent financial market developments for the economic outlook, in light of the uncertainty about how federal spending, tax, and regulatory policies might unfold and how global economic and financial conditions will evolve. In their consideration of economic conditions and monetary policy, participants agreed that sufficient evidence had accumulated of continued progress toward the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation to warrant an increase of 25 basis points in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting. Participants judged that, even after the increase in the target range, the stance of policy would remain accommodative, consistent with some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return of inflation to 2 percent over the medium term. Participants discussed the implications of the economic outlook for the likely future path of the target range for the federal funds rate. Most participants judged that a gradual pace of rate increases was likely to be appropriate to promote the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. A gradual pace was also viewed by some participants as likely to be warranted because the proximity of the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound placed constraints on the ability of monetary policy to respond to adverse shocks to the aggregate demand for goods and services. In addition, the neutral real rate--defined as the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is operating at or near its potential--still appeared to be low by historical standards, and it was noted that gradual increases in the federal funds rate over the next few years probably would be sufficient to return to a neutral policy stance. While viewing a gradual approach to policy firming as likely to be appropriate, participants emphasized the need to adjust the policy path as economic conditions evolved. They pointed to a number of risks that, if realized, might call for a different path of policy than they currently expected. Moreover, uncertainty regarding fiscal and other economic policies had increased. Participants agreed that it was too early to know what changes in these policies would be implemented and how such changes might alter the economic outlook. It was also noted that fiscal and other policies were only some of the many factors that could influence the economic outlook and thus the appropriate course of monetary policy. Moreover, many participants emphasized that the greater uncertainty about these policies made it more challenging to communicate to the public about the likely path of the federal funds rate. Participants noted that, in the circumstances of heightened uncertainty, it was especially important that the Committee continue to underscore in its communications that monetary policy would continue to be set to promote attainment of the Committee's statutory objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Many participants judged that the risk of a sizable undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate had increased somewhat and that the Committee might need to raise the federal funds rate more quickly than currently anticipated to limit the degree of undershooting and stem a potential buildup of inflationary pressures. However, with inflation still below the Committee's 2 percent objective, it was noted that downside risks to inflation remained and that a moderate undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate could help return inflation to 2 percent. A couple of participants expressed concern that the Committee's communications about a gradual pace of policy firming might be misunderstood as a commitment to only one or two rate hikes per year; participants agreed that policy would need to respond appropriately to the evolving outlook. Several participants noted circumstances that might warrant changes to the path for the federal funds rate could also have implications for the reinvestment of proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. Committee Policy ActionIn their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members judged that the information received since the Committee met in November indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace since midyear. Job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined. Household spending had been rising moderately, but business fixed investment had remained soft. Inflation had increased since earlier this year but was still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation had moved up considerably but still were low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed on balance. With respect to the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions would strengthen somewhat further. They generally observed that labor market conditions had improved appreciably over the past year and that labor market slack had declined. Members agreed that there was heightened uncertainty about possible changes in fiscal and other economic policies as well as their effects. However, members also agreed that near-term risks to the economic outlook appeared roughly balanced. Some members saw, with gradual adjustments of the stance of monetary policy, only modest risk of a scenario in which an undershooting of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment would create a sharp acceleration in prices. These members observed that inflation continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent objective and that wage gains had been subdued, and they expressed the view that inflation was likely to rise gradually, giving monetary policy time to respond if necessary. Several members noted that if the labor market appeared to be tightening significantly more than expected, it might become necessary to adjust the Committee's communications about the expected path of the federal funds rate, consistent with the possibility that a less gradual pace of increases could become appropriate. At this meeting, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, inflation would rise to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy prices and non-energy import prices dissipated and the labor market strengthened further. This view was reinforced by the rise in inflation in recent months and by recent increases in inflation compensation. Against this backdrop and in light of the current shortfall in inflation from 2 percent, members agreed that they would continue to closely monitor actual and expected progress toward the Committee's inflation goal. After assessing the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, members agreed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. This increase in the target range was viewed as appropriate in light of the considerable progress that had been made toward the Committee's objective of maximum employment and, in view of the rise in inflation since earlier in the year, the Committee's confidence that inflation would rise to 2 percent in the medium term. Members judged that, even after this increase in the target range, the stance of monetary policy remained accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. The Committee agreed that, in determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, it would assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee expected that economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate and that the federal funds rate was likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, members emphasized that the actual path of the federal funds rate would depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. The Committee also decided to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipated doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. Members noted that this policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, to be released at 2:00 p.m.: "Effective December 15, 2016, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1/2 to 3/4 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 0.50 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day. The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction and to continue reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions." The vote also encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:00 p.m.: "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions." Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C. Dudley, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Stanley Fischer, Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, Jerome H. Powell, Eric Rosengren, and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against this action: None. To support the Committee's decision to raise the target range for the federal funds rate, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to raise the interest rates on required and excess reserve balances 1/4 percentage point, to 3/4 percent, effective December 15, 2016. The Board of Governors also voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate (discount rate) to 1-1/4 percent, effective December 15, 2016.7 It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday-Wednesday, January 31-February 1, 2017. The meeting adjourned at 10:05 a.m. on December 14, 2016. Notation VoteBy notation vote completed on November 22, 2016, the Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the Committee meeting held on November 1-2, 2016. _____________________________ Brian F. MadiganSecretary2017-02-23 03:38:12
세계은행 “트럼프 보호무역, 글로벌 무역성장 둔화”…무역협약 철회보다 유지·확대해야

세계은행 “트럼프 보호무역, 글로벌 무역성장 둔화”…무역협약 철회보다 유지·확대해야

트럼프 행정부의 보호무역주의 발상이 글로벌 공급망을 약화시켜 생산성 하락을 야기할 수 있다고 세계은행이 경고했다. 미국의 정치적 불확실성 확대로 인해 글로벌 무역 성장 자체가 둔화될 가능성까지 제기되고 있어 주요 교역국의 반발이 더욱 거세질 전망이다. 21일(현지시간) 세계은행은 ‘2016년 글로벌 무역 현황: 교역 압박하는 정책 불확실성’ 보고서를 통해 미국의 보호무역주의와 글로벌 공급망을 미국으로 송환시키려는 시도가 생산성 향상을 저해할 우려가 있다고 밝혔다. 또 지난해 국제무역 성장률이 1.9%에 그치며 2009년 이후 가장 낮은 수치를 기록했다고 지적했다. 세계은행은 성장률 하락의 최대 원인으로 세계 경제성장 둔화와 경제정책에 대한 불확실성 확대를 꼽았다. 특히 트럼프 정권을 비롯한 정치 리스크 확대가 국제무역 성장을 끌어내리고 있다며 올해도 이런 추세가 이어질 것으로 내다봤다. 세계은행은 보고서에서 ‘트럼프’나 ‘트럼프 행정부’를 직접 언급하지 않았다. 하지만 파이낸셜타임스(FT)는 글로벌 공급망을 미국으로 끌고 오려는 것은 바람직하지 않다는 세계은행의 보고서는 트럼프 행정부, 즉 피터 나바로 국가무역위원회(USTR) 위원장의 ‘조립공장’ 발언을 비난하는 것이라고 말했다. 나바로 위원장은 과거 FT와의 인터뷰에서 미국 무역정책의 우선순위는 많은 미국계 다국적 기업들이 의존하는 ‘글로벌 공급처’에서 벗어나 이들 공급처를 미국 땅에 복귀시키는 것이라고 밝혔다. 외국산 부품들로 구성된 ‘미국 제품’을 조립하는 대형 조립공장을 유지하는 것만으로는 미국인의 일자리와 임금 향상에 큰 도움이 안되니 국내 공급망에서 이런 부품을 만들어야 한다는 얘기다. 이와 관련 세계은행은 “각국이 기존 무역협약을 철회하기보다는 무역협정을 유지·확대하는 것이 생산성 향상에 도움이 될 것”이라고 지적했다.2017-02-22 11:49:32