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[긴급진단] 아이폰6S 애플 실적발표를 어떻게 볼 것인가? 아이폰6S 출시후 애플 주가 연속 하락 뉴욕증시에도 큰 부담...그 이유는

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[긴급진단] 아이폰6S 애플 실적발표를 어떻게 볼 것인가? 아이폰6S 출시후 애플 주가 연속 하락 뉴욕증시에도 큰 부담...그 이유는

양호한 실적발표에도 불구하고 애플의 주가는 속절없이 연일 떨어지고 있다. 아이폰6S 출시후 애플에 과연 무슨 일이 있는 것일까? 글로벌이코노믹 경제연구소 김대호 박사의 진단으로 분석해 본다.
양호한 실적발표에도 불구하고 애플의 주가는 속절없이 연일 떨어지고 있다. 아이폰6S 출시후 애플에 과연 무슨 일이 있는 것일까? 글로벌이코노믹 경제연구소 김대호 박사의 진단으로 분석해 본다.
[글로벌이코노믹 김대호 대기자/경제학 박사] 애플이 분기실적을 발표했다.

세계에서 시가총액이 가장 큰 애플의 실적은 항상 큰 관심사다.
애플의 실적은 비단 애플 뿐만 아니라 애플이 속한 뉴욕증시와 세계증시에 큰 영향을 줄 수 밖에 없다.

세계증시를 전망하려면 우선 애플의 실적부터 살펴라는 말이 나오는 것도 결코 우연은 아니다.

애플의 실적은 또 애플과 치영한 경쟁을 벌이고 있는 삼성전자에도 큰 영향을 미친다.

그런 애플이 어닝시즌을 맞아 4분기 실적을 내봤다.

애플의 4분기는 우리가 통상 말하는 3분기에 해당한다.

애플이 회계연도를 10월에 시작하는 바람에 야기되는 차이다.
이 3분기 실적에 따르면 순이익이 111억2000만달러다.

전년동기 대비 31% 늘었다.

주당순이익(EPS)은 1.96달러다.

같은 기간 매출은 515억달러다.

전년동기 대비 22% 증가했다.

애플은 이기간 중 아이폰 총 4804만대를 판매햇다.

지난해 같은 기간의 3927만대를 앞질렀다.

아이패드 판매량은 988만대이다.

중국에서의 판매가 가장 많이 늘었다.
애플 팀 쿡 회장.
애플 팀 쿡 회장.

애플은 이어 4분기 매출 가이던스를 755억~775억달러로 제시했다.

얼핏 보면 양호한 성적이다.

그런데도 증시의 반응은 별로다.

아니 실망의 분위기가 역력하다.

실적발표직후 나스닥 거래소에서 애플 주가는 시간외에서 잠시 반짝했으나 이내 하락세로 돌아섰다.

도대체 왜 그럴까?

우선 첫째로 시장의 기대에 여전히 미진하다는 것이다.

매출과 수익 모두 시장기대보다는 조금씩 미달하는 것이다 .

둘째는 다음 분기와 내년도에 실적전망이 썩 좋지않다는 사실이다.

애플은 4분기 매출 가이던스를 755억달러에서 775억 달러로 잡고 있다.

애플 아이폰6S가 새로 출시된 상황을 감안하면 그리 높은 수치가 아니라고 시장은 보고있다.

애플의 새제품이 출시된 직후인 4분기에는 통상 매출이 크게 늘었는데 아이폰6S 출시후의 올 4분기 매출 가이던스가 시장의 기대에 비해 너무 낮다는 시각이 많다.

세번째 가장 결정적인 문제는 새 시대의 먹거리가 아직 안보인다는 사실이다.

아이폰 제품의 기술혁신 속도가 늦어 현재와 같은 아이폰 시리즈로는 돌풍을 일으키기에 역부족이라는 사실을 시장은 우려하고 있다.

디음은 애플의 실적 발표 내용전문

Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2015 fourth quarter ended September 26, 2015.

The Company posted quarterly revenue of $51.5 billion and quarterly net profit of $11.1 billion, or $1.96 per diluted share.

These results compare to revenue of $42.1 billion and net profit of $8.5 billion, or $1.42 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter.

Gross margin was 39.9 percent compared to 38 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

The growth was fueled by record fourth quarter sales of iPhone®, the expanded availability of Apple Watch®, and all-time records for Mac® sales and revenue from services.

“Fiscal 2015 was Apple’s most successful year ever, with revenue growing 28% to nearly $234 billion. This continued success is the result of our commitment to making the best, most innovative products on earth, and it’s a testament to the tremendous execution by our teams,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We are heading into the holidays with our strongest product lineup yet, including iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus, Apple Watch with an expanded lineup of cases and bands, the new iPad Pro and the all-new Apple TV which begins shipping this week.”

“Apple’s record September quarter results drove earnings per share growth of 38% and operating cash flow of $13.5 billion,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “We returned $17 billion to our investors during the quarter through share repurchases and dividends, and we have now completed over $143 billion of our $200 billion capital return program.”

Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2016 first quarter:

revenue between $75.5 billion and $77.5 billion
애을 주가 거래내역.
애을 주가 거래내역.


gross margin between 39 percent and 40 percent

operating expenses between $6.3 billion and $6.4 billion

other income/(expense) of $400 million

tax rate of 26.2 percent

Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $.52 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on November 12, 2015, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 9, 2015.

Apple will provide live streaming of its Q4 2015 financial results conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PDT on October 27, 2015 at www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq415. This webcast will also be available for replay for approximately two weeks thereafter.

This press release contains forward-looking statements including without limitation those about the Company’s estimated revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income/(expense), and tax rate. These statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ. Risks and uncertainties include without limitation the effect of competitive and economic factors, and the Company’s reaction to those factors, on consumer and business buying decisions with respect to the Company’s products; continued competitive pressures in the marketplace; the ability of the Company to deliver to the marketplace and stimulate customer demand for new programs, products, and technological innovations on a timely basis; the effect that product introductions and transitions, changes in product pricing or mix, and/or increases in component costs could have on the Company’s gross margin; the inventory risk associated with the Company’s need to order or commit to order product components in advance of customer orders; the continued availability on acceptable terms, or at all, of certain components and services essential to the Company’s business currently obtained by the Company from sole or limited sources; the effect that the Company’s dependency on manufacturing and logistics services provided by third parties may have on the quality, quantity or cost of products manufactured or services rendered; risks associated with the Company’s international operations; the Company’s reliance on third-party intellectual property and digital content; the potential impact of a finding that the Company has infringed on the intellectual property rights of others; the Company’s dependency on the performance of distributors, carriers and other resellers of the Company’s products; the effect that product and service quality problems could have on the Company’s sales and operating profits; the continued service and availability of key executives and employees; war, terrorism, public health issues, natural disasters, and other circumstances that could disrupt supply, delivery, or demand of products; and unfavorable results of legal proceedings. More information on potential factors that could affect the Company’s financial results is included from time to time in the “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” sections of the Company’s public reports filed with the SEC, including the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 27, 2014, its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended December 27, 2014, its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2015, its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended June 27, 2015, and its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 26, 2015 to be filed with the SEC. The Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information, which speak as of their respective dates.
애플 주가 추이. 이미지 확대보기
애플 주가 추이.

Apple revolutionized personal technology with the introduction of the Macintosh in 1984. Today, Apple leads the world in innovation with iPhone, iPad, the Mac and Apple Watch. Apple’s three software platforms — iOS, OS X and watchOS — provide seamless experiences across all Apple devices and empower people with breakthrough services including the App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay and iCloud. Apple’s 100,000 employees are dedicated to making the best products on earth, and to leaving the world better than we found it.
김대호 경제연구소 소장 겸 대기자 tiger8280@

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