[글로벌이코노믹 연구소 김대호 소장/ 경제학 박사] 국제통화기금(IMF)과 세계은행(WB)의 연례 봄 회의가 끝났다.
국제통화기금(IMF)과 세계은행(WB)은 한국시간 22일 이틀간에 걸친 봄 회의를 끝내면서 공동선언문을 채택했다. 이른바 코뮈니케 (Communiqué)로 불리는 이 공동선언문은 이번 봄 회의의 결과물에 해당한다. 회원국들의 합의 사항을 담은 것이다.
그런 면에서 이 공동선언문은 앞으로 IMF의 정책방향을 예고하는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 향후 세계 경제의 운영 방향이 이 공동선언문에 담겨있다고 할 수 있다.
국제통화기금(IMF)과 세계은행(WB)은 이 공동선언문에서 "각 나라의 재정 정책은 경기순응성(procyclicality)을 피할 필요가 있고, 국내총생산(GDP)에서 차지하는 공공부채 비중은 지속 가능한 경로에 있어야 한다"고 강조했다. 재정의 방만한 운영을 최대한 자제해야 한다는 선언이다.
그러나 기대를 모았던 무역전쟁 해결에 대해서는 이렇다 할 방안을 제시하지 못했다. 회의 기간 내내 많은 토론이 있었지만 서로 자기 주장한 늘어 놓았을 뿐 합의안에는 이르지 못한 것으로 보인다.
IMF 운영위원회 즉 Governing Committee 신임 위원장 레세차 칸야고 남아프리카공화국 중앙은행 총재는 이번 회의에서 회원국들은 무역과 관련해 합의된 규정을 지키고 앙갚음식 무역 장벽의 도입으로 끌고 가는 현 사태를 피하는 것이 필수고 강조했다. 칸야고 총재는 이어 "무역분쟁에서 결코 승자는 있을 수 없다"면서 " 무역전쟁을 하면 모두가 패자가 될 수밖에 없다"고 말했다.
이에 대해 미국은 무역흑자를 연속으로 기록하는 나라의 문제를 제기했다. 스티브 므누신 미국 재무장관은 글로벌 조정 메커니즘이 작동하지 않아 주요 무역 국가들의 흑자가 줄지 않고 있다고 불만을 털어놓으면서 무역불균형 해소를 위해 IMF가 더 많은 일을 해야 한다고 강조했다.
므누신 장관은 "회원국들이 불공정 경쟁이익을 촉진하거나 불균형 성장을 이끄는 거시경제와 환율, 무역 정책을 견지하면 IMF가 더 적극적으로 대응해야 한다"며 IMF가 더 분명한 정책 권고를 내놓아야 한다고 요구했다.
미국은 특히 중국과 독일 같은 나라들의 대규모 흑자를 줄여 무역 불균형을 완화해야 한다고 역설했다.
크리스틴 라가르드 IMF 총재는 이날 폐막 기자회견에서 보호무역주의의 심화와 지식재산권의 적절한 보호에 관해 관심을 표시하며 중간 입장을 취했다. 라가르드 총재는 "우리는 모두 이 문제들을 인식하고 있으며 이 문제들이 성장과 안정을 훼손하는 지점까지 가기 전에 해결되도록 도와야 한다"고 말했다.
므누신의 주장이 공동선언문에 들지는 못했으나 미국은 무역흑자 국가에 대한 구조적 조정 압력을 앞으로 더욱 강하게 할 것임을 선언했다. IMF는 미국이 지분을 가장 많이 소유하고 있다. 최대 주주일 뿐 아니라 미국만이 거부권을 갖는 구조다. 그런 만큼 IMF로서는 미국의 요구를 무시하기가 쉽지 않다.
이 같은 국제통화기금(IMF)과 세계은행(WB) 공동선언문의 내용과 막전막후 분위기를 감안할 때 무역분쟁이 그리 쉽게 타결될 것 같지 않다. 무역흑자를 내고 있는 우리나라로서도 신경을 써야 할 대목이다.
다음은 국제통화기금(IMF)과 세계은행(WB) 공동선언문 전문
Communiqué of the Thirty-Seven Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
Chaired by Mr. Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
The Committee expresses its deep gratitude to its former Chair, Mr. Agustín Carstens, for his invaluable contribution to the work of the Committee during 2015-17, and extends its best wishes to him as the General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements. The Committee welcomes Governor Lesetja Kganyago as its new Chairman.
Global outlook and policy priorities
Global growth has further strengthened and is increasingly broad-based, driven by a strong rebound in investment and trade. Risks are broadly balanced in the near term, but remain skewed to the downside beyond the next several quarters. Rising financial vulnerabilities, increasing trade and geopolitical tensions, and historically high global debt threaten global growth prospects. Demographic headwinds and subdued productivity growth may reduce the potential for higher and more inclusive growth going forward.
The window of opportunity remains open and should be used expeditiously to advance policies and reforms that sustain the current upswing, enhance resilience, and raise medium-term growth for the benefit of all. We will continue to use all policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable, balanced, inclusive, and job-rich growth. In line with central bank mandates and mindful of financial stability risks, monetary accommodation should continue where inflation remains weak and be gradually withdrawn where inflation looks set to return to central bank targets. Fiscal policy should be flexible and growth-friendly, rebuild buffers where needed, avoid procyclicality, create space to invest in infrastructure and workforce skills, and ensure that public debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path.
Structural reforms should aim to lift productivity, potential growth, and employment, while effectively assisting those bearing the cost of adjustment. We stress the importance of timely, full, and consistent implementation and finalization of the financial sector reform agenda as soon as possible to further strengthen financial sector resilience. We will continue to monitor and, if necessary, address emerging risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system. Policies should also enhance inclusion to widely share the gains from technology and economic integration and manage associated risks. We will work together to reduce excessive global imbalances in a way that supports global growth by pursuing appropriate and sustainable policies.
Strong fundamentals, sound policies, and a resilient international monetary system (IMS) are essential to the stability of exchange rates, contributing to strong and sustainable growth and investment. Flexible exchange rates, where feasible, can serve as a shock absorber. We recognize that excessive volatility or disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes.
We will cooperate to tackle shared challenges. We reaffirm the importance of implementing the conclusions of the G-20 Hamburg Summit on trade and recognize the need for further dialogue and actions. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies. We will continue to work for a globally fair and modern international tax system, address tax and competition challenges, including from digitalization, as appropriate; and tackle the sources and channels of money laundering and terrorism financing, proliferation financing, corruption, and other illicit finance.
We support efforts toward reaching the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We will work toward enhancing debt transparency and sustainable financing practices by both debtors and creditors and addressing debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries (LICs). We will support countries dealing with the macroeconomic consequences of pandemics, cyber risks, climate change and natural disasters, energy scarcity, conflicts, migration, and refugee and other humanitarian crises.
We welcome the Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda Update. In line with its mandate, the IMF will continue to support its members and collaborate with others to:
Promote a stable international monetary and financial system. We welcome efforts to conduct a rigorous, evenhanded, candid, and transparent assessment of excessive global imbalances and exchange rates in the 2018 External Sector Report. We look forward to the stock-take on capital flow management measures based on the Institutional View.
Help members tackle shared challenges. We support the IMF’s collaboration with relevant stakeholders on financial technology, crypto assets, and cyber security. We support the IMF’s continued role in international tax issues and domestic resource mobilization, including through the Platform for Collaboration on Tax. We call on the IMF to set out a clear process for supporting country authorities in developing their medium-term revenue strategies. We support further efforts to address the withdrawal of correspondent banking relationships and its adverse consequences, including on remittances, trade flows, and financial inclusion.
We reaffirm our support for the IMF’s work to help countries achieve the 2030 SDGs. We support the IMF’s continued efforts to assist countries in dealing with the macroeconomic consequences of large refugee inflows.
Safeguard debt sustainability. Debt vulnerabilities are rising in many countries, particularly in LICs. We call on the IMF and the World Bank Group to work together on a multi-pronged work program to enhance debt transparency and sustainability and address LIC debt vulnerabilities. We urge the IMF to work closely with members to strengthen fiscal frameworks and improve debt management capacity, and to work with debtors and creditors on promoting sustainable lending practices and tackling data gaps.
Enhance resilience and raise medium-term prospects. We welcome the IMF’s enhanced engagement on governance issues, including corruption, as well as efforts to establish a framework to guide its involvement in social protection issues. We agree that the IMF will need to consider the effects of technology and digitalization in its macroeconomic analysis, including on inequality, productivity, labor and financial markets, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and measurement of the digital economy. We also welcome work on youth unemployment and the impact of gender inclusion and labor force participation on growth. We look forward to the IMF’s management implementation plan in response to the IEO Evaluation—The IMF and Fragile States.
Upgrade policy tools to develop tailored policy solutions to members. We welcome the findings of the Interim Surveillance Review and look forward to further improvements in surveillance practices to ensure evenhandedness, enhance traction and effectiveness for crisis prevention, improve the coverage of spillovers, and adapt to evolving macro-critical challenges. We support work on the reviews of the AML/CFT program, the Financial Sector Assessment Program, the capacity development strategy, and the debt sustainability framework for countries with market access.
Strengthen the IMS. We continue to support work toward further strengthening the global financial safety net (GFSN) and collaboration with regional financing arrangements. We support the IMF’s contributions to the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative. We look forward to the reviews of LIC facilities, including with regard to small and fragile states, and of conditionality and design of IMF-supported programs. We appreciate continued efforts to strengthen the effectiveness and accountability of capacity development and assist countries in implementing the updated LIC debt sustainability framework.
IMF resources and governance
We reaffirm our commitment to a strong, quota-based, and adequately resourced IMF to preserve its role at the center of the GFSN. We are committed to concluding the 15th General Review of Quotas and agreeing on a new quota formula as a basis for a realignment of quota shares to result in increased shares for dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy and hence likely in the share of emerging market and developing countries as a whole, while protecting the voice and representation of the poorest members. We call on the Executive Board to work expeditiously toward the completion of the 15th General Review of Quotas in line with the above goals by the Spring Meetings of 2019 and no later than the Annual Meetings of 2019. We note the progress report to the Board of Governors and look forward to further progress by the time of our next meeting. We welcome the progress made in securing commitments under the 2016 Bilateral Borrowing Agreements. We call for full implementation of the 2010 governance reforms.
We reiterate the importance of maintaining the IMF’s high-quality staff and strengthening efforts to meet the 2020 diversity targets. We support promoting gender diversity in the Executive Board.
Our next meeting will be held in Bali, Indonesia, on October 13, 2018.