닫기

글로벌이코노믹

미국 FOMC "금리인상 예정대로"...GDP 부진은 일시적, 곧 반등

공유
0

미국 FOMC "금리인상 예정대로"...GDP 부진은 일시적, 곧 반등

미국 연준 본부 건물.
미국 연준 본부 건물.
[글로벌이코노믹 연구소 김대호 소장] 미국 연준(FRB)은 1분기 성장률이 낮게 나온 것은 날씨 등 일시적인 요인에 의한 것으로 곧 경기가 나아질 것이라고 전망했다.

연준은 30일 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)를 끝내면서 발표한 성명서에서 "1분기 국내총생산(GDP) 증가가 기대 이하 수준이며 고용개선도 더딘 것으로 나타나고 있다"며 “기업들의 투자가 줄고 수출도 감소했다”고 분석했다.
그러나 "경기둔화는 일시적인 것이며 점진적으로 회복될 것"이라고 전망했다.

“고용과 소득, 소비자 신뢰가 회복되고 저유가로 가계 구매력이 개선되면서 수개월 안에 소비자 지출이 증가할 것”이라며 “늘어나는 가계소득과 소비자심리 개선이 소비 지출에 영향을 미칠 것”이라고 내다봤다.

금리인상과 관련해서는 "노동시장이 추가적으로 개선되고 인플레이션이 중기 목표인 2%대로 움직인다는 합리적인 확신이 있을 때 금리 인상에 나서는 것이 적절하다고 본다"고 밝혔다.

“인플레이션이 연준의 목표치인 2% 이하로 떨어지고 노동시장이 개선되고 있다는 ‘합리적 확신’이 들 때 금리를 인상한다”는 지적이다.

이는 기존의 입장을 재확인한 것으로 금리인상이 여전히 실행 가능한 카드임을 시사했다.

구체적인 인상의 시점에 대해서는 언급하지 않았다.
이에 따라 금리인상 시기는 누구도 예측하기 어려운 오리무중 상태로 빠지게 됐다.

연준이 이날 경기반등을 예견하긴 했지만 금리인상을 단행하기 각종 지표로 이를 확인해야 하는 상황이다.

결국 금리인상은 경기상황으로 결정하는 원론으로 돌아가게 됐다.

[다음은 연준 성명서 전문]

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated, and the unemployment rate remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined; households‘ real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high. Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined. Inflation continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee‘s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.
김대호 연구소 소장 tiger8280@

[알림] 본 기사는 투자판단의 참고용이며, 이를 근거로 한 투자손실에 대한 책임은 없습니다.