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[김대호의 긴급진단] 애플 주가대폭락, 뉴욕증시 어닝쇼크의 진상

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[김대호의 긴급진단] 애플 주가대폭락, 뉴욕증시 어닝쇼크의 진상

애플이 어닝쇼크의 지원지가 됐다. 실적 발표후 주가가 대폭락한 것이다. 대체 무슨 일일까?
애플이 어닝쇼크의 지원지가 됐다. 실적 발표후 주가가 대폭락한 것이다. 대체 무슨 일일까?
[글로벌이코노믹 경제연구소 김대호 소장] 어닝 시즌을 맞아 발표된 기업들의 경영실적이 연일 뉴욕증시를 흔들고 있다.

21일 새벽에는 애플 주가의 대폭락이 연출됐다.
실적 발표 후 장은 바로 끝났으나 이후 열린 2시간 동안의 시간외 거래에서 무려 7.6%나 대폭락 한 것이다.

도대체 무슨 내용일까?

애플이 발표한 분기실적 전문을 보면 6월30일로 마감된 분기실적은 상당히 양호한 것으로 나타났다.

매출이496억 달러로 전년동기 대비 32.5% 증가했다.

상당히 선방한 것이다.

매출 증가의 1등 공신은 역시 아이폰이었다.
이기간 중 아이폰 판매량은 35% 증가했다.

시장의 예상을 크게 상회하는 것이었다.

순익도 37.8% 증가했다.

금액으로는 106억8000만 달러의 순익을 올렸다.

주당 1.85달러이다.

이 역시 시장 전망치인 1.81달러를 상회했다.

그럼에도 주가가 폭락한 것은 다음 분기의 예상이 전망이 좋지 않다는 이유 때문이다.

애플은 이날 분기실적을 발표하면서 다음 분기 즉 7월부터 9월사이 아이폰 판매가 여의치 않을 것이라고 발표했다.

기존의 실적은 양호하지만 앞으로 난관이 예상된다는 뜻이다.

이 말 한마디가 주가 대폭락을 불렀다.

역시 투자자에게 중요한 것은 과거가 아니라 미래라는 사실을 다시 한번 느끼게 된다.

세계 시가총액 세계1위 기업인 애플의 주가가 실적 발표 후 장외시장에서 두시간 만에 7.67%나 폭락했다. 그 이유는?  이미지 확대보기
세계 시가총액 세계1위 기업인 애플의 주가가 실적 발표 후 장외시장에서 두시간 만에 7.67%나 폭락했다. 그 이유는?


다음은 이날 애플이 발표한 분기 실적 전문이다.


Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2015 third quarter ended June 27, 2015. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $49.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $10.7 billion, or $1.85 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $37.4 billion and net profit of $7.7 billion, or $1.28 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.7 percent compared to 39.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 64 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

The growth was fueled by record third quarter sales of iPhone® and Mac®, all-time record revenue from services and the successful launch of Apple Watch™.

“We had an amazing quarter, with iPhone revenue up 59 percent over last year, strong sales of Mac, all-time record revenue from services, driven by the App Store, and a great start for Apple Watch,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “The excitement for Apple Music has been incredible, and we’re looking forward to releasing iOS 9, OS X El Capitan and watchOS 2 to customers in the fall.”

“In the third quarter our year-over-year growth rate accelerated from the first half of fiscal 2015, with revenue up 33 percent and earnings per share up 45 percent,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “We generated very strong operating cash flow of $15 billion, and we returned over $13 billion to shareholders through our capital return program.”

Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2015 fourth quarter:

revenue between $49 billion and $51 billion

gross margin between 38.5 percent and 39.5 percent

operating expenses between $5.85 billion and $5.95 billion

other income/(expense) of $400 million

tax rate of 26.3 percent

Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $.52 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on August 13, 2015, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 10, 2015.

Apple will provide live streaming of its Q3 2015 financial results conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PDT on July 21, 2015 at www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq315. This webcast will also be available for replay for approximately two weeks thereafter.

This press release contains forward-looking statements including without limitation those about the Company’s estimated revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income/(expense), and tax rate.

These statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ.

Risks and uncertainties include without limitation the effect of competitive and economic factors, and the Company’s reaction to those factors, on consumer and business buying decisions with respect to the Company’s products;

continued competitive pressures in the marketplace; the ability of the Company to deliver to the marketplace and stimulate customer demand for new programs, products, and technological innovations on a timely basis;

the effect that product introductions and transitions, changes in product pricing or mix, and/or increases in component costs could have on the Company’s gross margin;

the inventory risk associated with the Company’s need to order or commit to order product components in advance of customer orders;

the continued availability on acceptable terms, or at all, of certain components and services essential to the Company’s business currently obtained by the Company from sole or limited sources; the effect that the Company’s dependency on manufacturing and logistics services provided by third parties may have on the quality, quantity or cost of products manufactured or services rendered;

risks associated with the Company’s international operations; the Company’s reliance on third-party intellectual property and digital content; the potential impact of a finding that the Company has infringed on the intellectual property rights of others; the Company’s dependency on the performance of distributors, carriers and other resellers of the Company’s products; the effect that product and service quality problems could have on the Company’s sales and operating profits; the continued service and availability of key executives and employees;

war, terrorism, public health issues, natural disasters, and other circumstances that could disrupt supply, delivery, or demand of products; and unfavorable results of legal proceedings. More information on potential factors that could affect the Company’s financial results is included from time to time in the “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” sections of the Company’s public reports filed with the SEC, including the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 27, 2014, its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended December 27, 2014, its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2015, and its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended June 27, 2015 to be filed with the SEC. The Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information, which speak as of their respective dates.

Apple revolutionized personal technology with the introduction of the Macintosh in 1984. Today, Apple leads the world in innovation with iPhone, iPad, the Mac and Apple Watch. Apple’s three software platforms — iOS, OS X and watchOS — provide seamless experiences across all Apple devices and empower people with breakthrough services including the App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay and iCloud. Apple’s 100,000 employees are dedicated to making the best products on earth, and to leaving the world better than we found it.


김대호 경제연구소 소장 겸 대기자 tiger8280@

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