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[경제박사 김대호] 한은 기준금리 동결, 이주열 총재 4월 위기설 과장?  환율 대란이 온다는데...

[경제박사 김대호] 한은 기준금리 동결, 이주열 총재 4월 위기설 과장? 환율 대란이 온다는데...

한국은행이 기준금리를 동결했다. 한국은행은 23일 오전 이주열 총재 주재로 금융통화위원회를 열어 기준금리를 논의한 결과 현재의 연 1.25%로 유지하기로 했다고 밝혔다. 이로써 한국은행 기준금리는 2016년 6월 0.25%포인트 내린 이후 연 8개월째 동결됐다. 글로벌이코노믹 김대호 주필 겸 글로벌경제연구소장은 한은 기준금리 동결과 관련 23일 sbs cnbc 방송에 출연했다. 다음은 방송 동영상 FOMC 의사록 주요내용 17년 2월23일 공개 "꽤 이른 기준금리 인상 단행 가능성“ "다음 회의에서 기준금리가 인상되는 것이 적절할 수 있다“ “현재 예상하는 것보다 더 빨리 금리를 올려야 할 수 있다" FOMC 성명서 -16년 2월1일-FF금리 0.5% 유지-소비 심리와 기업 심리가 최근 개선-기업 고정투자 미약-물가 상승했지만 여전히 2% 미달 재닛 옐런 발언 -17년 3월 14일 -미국 의회 상원청문회-"노동시장 견고하고 물가는 2% 향하고 있다"-3월 FOMC 추가적 조정 적합할 수도-금리인상을 너무 오래 기다리는 것은 현명치 못하다-너무 빠른 금리인상은 경기침체 야기할 수도 3월 금리인상 가능성 -0.5%=>0.75% : 22.1% -CME 페드워치-연방기금(FF) 금리선물 3월 금리인상 7가지 체크포인트 -17년 3월15일 -3월3일 고용보고서 시간당 평균임금, 고용비용지수, 임금지표 -3월1일 PCE 물가지수 1월 CPI 2.5% 상승-트럼프 감세정책: 인하폭 인하대상 -기업투자: 자본지출(기업 설비투자)/ 내구재 주문 -베이지북 설문조사 -금융시장: 주가지수 채권금리 -세계경제: 중국경제 호전 세계경제 3대 불안 요인 -브렉시트-3월 네덜란드 총선-5월 프랑스 총선 미국 FOMC 의사록 -Minutes-1993년부터 작성 발표 -연준위원 발언록 -회의분위기 파악 -차기 FOMC 예측 자료 -FOMC 회의 3주후 공개 (2004년) CME 페드워치 금리인상 전망 0.50%=> 0.75% 5월 41.2% 6월 46.3% 미국 금리 전문가 전망-크리쉬나 구하 대표 (버코어ISI) "3월 기준금리 인상은 쇼크 시장 쇼크될 것“ “3월 인상 가능성이 크지 않다” “5월 인상이라는 서프라이즈가 나올 수 있다” “6월 인상이 가장 비둘기적“ 미국 금리 전문가 전망 -케빈 커민스 이코노미스트(냇웨스트 마켓츠) "3월 인상이 가능하긴 하지만, 6월 인상 전망을 유지한다" CNBC 방송 미국 금리인상 전망 -2016년 중 3차례 -6월 (0.75%)-11월 (1.00%)-12월 (1.25%) 한국은행 15년 6월 0.25%P 인하후 7개월째 동결 한국은행 금리인상 요인 -가계부채 가파른 증가 -미국 기준금리 인상 움직임 -한국 수출 증가세-트럼프 환율조작국 지정 엄포 한국은행 금리인하 요인 -경기부진-성장률 둔화 -가계부채 이자부담 완화 -탄핵정국 정세불안 모건 스탠리 어떤 회사? -전문투자은행 (IB) -1935년 JP모건에서 분사 -1997년 Dean Witter Discover 합병 -뉴욕증시 상장 모건 스탠리 광고 COPY “하나님이 자금을 조달해야 한다면 모건스탠리에 의뢰할 것” 모건스탠리 한국 금리 전망 <당초> 1분기 1.25%=>1.00% 2분기 1.00%=>0.75% 3분기 0.75%=>0.50% <수정> 1분기 동결 2분기부터 연내 3차례 인하 모건스탠리 전망 수정 이유 -수출 호조 -생산자물가 상승-경제구조조정 순항 -중국 리스크 완화 모건 스탠리 미국 금리 전망 “미국 3월에 금리인상 않을 것” “9월 전에 인상하는 것도 어려운 상황” “실업률 4.8% 자연실업률 상회” “임금 상승세 미약”2017-02-23 16:28:31
[경제박사 김대호] FOMC 의사록 읽는 법, 환율 뉴욕증시 국제유가 금시세 대미무역흑자 코스닥 코스피 상관관계 주목...재닛 옐런 FRB 금리인상의 경제학

[경제박사 김대호] FOMC 의사록 읽는 법, 환율 뉴욕증시 국제유가 금시세 대미무역흑자 코스닥 코스피 상관관계 주목...재닛 옐런 FRB 금리인상의 경제학

미국 연준(Fed)의 통화정책 회의 의사록이 주목을 끌고 있다. 의사록이란 연준의 최고 의결기구인 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)에서 어떤 일이 있었는지를 기록해 놓은 일종의 회의록이다. FOMC 회의가 있은 지 3주째 되는 날 발표한다. 통상적으로 연준은 FOMC 당일 정책성명서를 발표한다. 이 성명서에서는 금리 변동 내역과 그 결정의 배경 등을 간략하게 언급한다. 반면 의사록에서는 모든 토론내용을 소상하게 밝힌다. 향후의 통화정책방향을 예측하기 위해서는 이 FOMC 의사록에 드러나 연준 의원들의 솔직하면서도 자세한 의견을 파악하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 3월 또는 6월에 금리인상을 단행할 것인지 그 여부는 23일 새벽에 발표되는 FOMC 의사록을 참고할 필요가 있다. 미국 FOMC 의사록 -Minutes-1993년부터 작성 발표 -연준위원 발언록 -회의분위기 파악 -차기 FOMC 예측 자료 -FOMC 회의 3주후 공개 (2004년부터) 다음은 연준 2월 초에 발표된 FOMC 2016년 12월 회의 의사록 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 13-14, 2016 FOMC MinutesSummary of Economic ProjectionsA joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, December 13, 2016, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 14, 2016, at 9:00 a.m.1 PRESENT: Janet L. Yellen, ChairWilliam C. Dudley, Vice ChairmanLael BrainardJames BullardStanley FischerEsther L. GeorgeLoretta J. MesterJerome H. PowellEric RosengrenDaniel K. Tarullo Charles L. Evans, Patrick Harker, Robert S. Kaplan, Neel Kashkari, and Michael Strine, Alternate Members of the Federal Open Market Committee Jeffrey M. Lacker, Dennis P. Lockhart, and John C. Williams, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, respectively Brian F. Madigan, SecretaryMatthew M. Luecke, Deputy SecretaryDavid W. Skidmore, Assistant SecretaryMichelle A. Smith, Assistant SecretaryScott G. Alvarez, General CounselMichael Held, Deputy General CounselSteven B. Kamin, EconomistThomas Laubach, EconomistDavid W. Wilcox, Economist Thomas A. Connors, David E. Lebow, Stephen A. Meyer, Christopher J. Waller, and William Wascher, Associate Economists Simon Potter, Manager, System Open Market Account Lorie K. Logan, Deputy Manager, System Open Market Account Robert deV. Frierson, Secretary, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors Matthew J. Eichner,2 Director, Division of Reserve Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board of Governors; Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, Board of Governors Margie Shanks,3 Deputy Secretary, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors James A. Clouse, Deputy Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Andreas Lehnert, Deputy Director, Division of Financial Stability, Board of Governors; Beth Anne Wilson, Deputy Director, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors Trevor A. Reeve, Senior Special Adviser to the Chair, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors David Bowman, Andrew Figura, Joseph W. Gruber, Ann McKeehan, and David Reifschneider, Special Advisers to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors Antulio N. Bomfim, Robert J. Tetlow, and Joyce K. Zickler, Senior Advisers, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Wayne Passmore, Senior Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Brian M. Doyle, Associate Director, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors; Stacey Tevlin, Associate Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Stephanie R. Aaronson, Assistant Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors; Christopher J. Gust, Assistant Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Don Kim, Adviser, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Karen M. Pence, Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Penelope A. Beattie,4 Assistant to the Secretary, Office of the Secretary, Board of Governors David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Edward Herbst and Lubomir Petrasek, Principal Economists, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Achilles Sangster II, Information Management Analyst, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Mark L. Mullinix, First Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond David Altig, Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Michael Dotsey, Evan F. Koenig, Spencer Krane, and Mark E. Schweitzer, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, and Cleveland, respectively Terry Fitzgerald, Giovanni Olivei, Argia M. Sbordone, Mark Spiegel, and Alexander L. Wolman, Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis, Boston, New York, San Francisco, and Richmond, respectively Willem Van Zandweghe, Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Rules Regarding Availability of InformationThe Committee unanimously voted to amend its Rules Regarding Availability of Information (Rules) in order to comply with the FOIA Improvement Act of 2016 and to make a number of other technical changes.5 The amended Rules would be published in the Federal Register as an interim final rule, which would become effective immediately on publication. The Committee anticipated finalization of the Rules after any appropriate changes were incorporated based on comments received from the public during the 60-day comment period following the Federal Register notice. Secretary's note: The amended Rules were published in the Federal Register on December 27, 2016. Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market OperationsThe manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) reported on developments in U.S. and global financial markets during the period since the Committee met on November 1-2, 2016. Nominal yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury securities rose substantially over the period, reflecting both higher real yields and an increase in inflation compensation. The value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets rose, U.S. equity indexes increased considerably, and credit spreads on U.S. corporate bonds narrowed. Market pricing and survey results indicated that market participants had come to see a high probability of an increase of 25 basis points in the FOMC's target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, and that the path of the federal funds rate anticipated by market participants for coming years had steepened. Surveys of market participants indicated that revised expectations for government spending and tax policy following the U.S. elections in early November were seen as the most important reasons, among several factors, for the increase in longer-term Treasury yields, the climb in equity valuations, and the rise in the dollar. The manager also reported on developments in money markets and open market operations. Market interest rates on overnight repurchase agreements (repos) fell during the intermeeting period. Market participants pointed to a number of factors contributing to the decline, including lower demands for funding by securities dealers and the ample availability of financing from government-only money market funds (MMFs). The decline in repo rates, together with the shift of MMF assets toward government-only funds, had likely boosted usage of the System's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility over the period. In contrast to the decline in interest rates for secured money market transactions, the effective federal funds rate generally remained near the middle of the FOMC's 1/4 to 1/2 percent target range. The manager also reported on the Open Market Desk's regular review of operational readiness for a range of open market operations. By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk's domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System's account during the intermeeting period. Staff Review of the Economic SituationThe information reviewed for the December 13-14 meeting indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) was expanding at a moderate pace over the second half of the year and that labor market conditions had continued to strengthen in recent months. Consumer price inflation increased further above its pace early in the year but was still running below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent, restrained in part by earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Taken together, a range of recent indicators showed that labor market conditions had tightened further. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased at a solid pace in October and November, and the unemployment rate declined, reaching 4.6 percent in November. The share of workers employed part time for economic reasons decreased; however, both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio edged down on net. The rates of private-sector job openings, of hiring, and of quits were generally little changed in September and October at levels above those seen during much of the current economic expansion. The four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits remained low. Labor productivity in the business sector was flat over the four quarters ending in the third quarter. Measures of labor compensation continued to rise at a moderate rate. Compensation per hour in the business sector rose 3 percent over the four quarters ending in the third quarter, and average hourly earnings for all employees increased 2-1/2 percent over the 12 months ending in November. The unemployment rates for African Americans, for Hispanics, and for whites all declined in recent months. The unemployment rates for African Americans and for Hispanics remained above the rate for whites but were close to the levels seen just before the most recent recession. Total industrial production was flat in October. Both manufacturing production and mining output increased, but the output of utilities declined markedly because of unseasonably warm weather in October. Automakers' assembly schedules suggested that motor vehicle production would be roughly flat in the near term, and broader indicators of manufacturing production, such as the new orders indexes from national and regional manufacturing surveys, pointed toward only modest gains in factory output in the coming months. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) appeared to be rising at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter. Consumer expenditures increased modestly in October but were restrained by a decline in spending for energy services that reflected unseasonably warm weather in that month. Unit sales of light motor vehicles were higher in October and November than average monthly sales in the third quarter. The components of the nominal retail sales data used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct its estimate of PCE rose moderately in November. Recent readings on key factors that influence consumer spending--such as continued gains in employment, real disposable personal income, and households' net worth--were consistent with moderate real PCE growth for the fourth quarter as a whole. In addition, consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers moved higher in November and early December. Recent information on housing market activity suggested that real residential investment was picking up in the fourth quarter after decreasing in the previous two quarters. Starts for both new single-family homes and multifamily units rose substantially in October. Building permit issuance for new single-family homes--which tends to be a good indicator of the underlying trend in construction--also increased. Sales of existing homes advanced, although new home sales dipped. Real private expenditures for business equipment and intellectual property seemed to be soft early in the fourth quarter. Nominal shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft edged down in October. However, new orders of these capital goods rose and were running above the level of shipments, suggesting a pickup in business spending for equipment in the near term. Nominal business expenditures for nonresidential structures declined in October, but the number of oil and gas rigs in operation, an indicator of spending for structures in the drilling and mining sector, continued to edge up through early December. Real government purchases looked to be rising modestly in the fourth quarter. Nominal federal government spending in October and November pointed to increases in real defense purchases in the fourth quarter. The payrolls of state and local governments expanded, on balance, in October and November, and nominal construction spending by these governments rose in October. The U.S. international trade deficit widened in October after narrowing in September. After increasing in September, exports fell substantially in October, reflecting declines in exports of agricultural products, consumer goods, and industrial supplies. Imports in October retraced their September decline, as imports of consumer goods and capital goods rose. The available trade data suggested that real net exports would make a negative contribution to real U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Total U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased almost 1-1/2 percent over the 12 months ending in October, partly restrained by recent decreases in consumer food prices and earlier declines in consumer energy prices. Core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose about 1-3/4 percent over the same period, held down in part by decreases in the prices of non-energy imports over a portion of this period and by the pass-through of earlier declines in energy prices into the prices of other goods and services. Over the same 12-month period, total consumer prices as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose a bit more than 1-1/2 percent, while core CPI inflation was around 2 percent. The Michigan survey measure of median longer-run inflation expectations edged up, on net, in November and early December. The measure of longer-run inflation expectations for PCE prices from the Survey of Professional Forecasters was unchanged in the fourth quarter, and measures of longer-run inflation expectations from the Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants were also unchanged in December. Foreign real GDP growth rebounded in the third quarter from an unusually subdued pace in the second quarter. This bounceback was driven primarily by stronger economic growth in Canada and Mexico, two countries where the second-quarter weakness was most pronounced. In the advanced foreign economies (AFEs), recent indicators were consistent with a more moderate pace of economic activity in the fourth quarter. Economic growth also appeared to slow after its uptick in the third quarter in the emerging market economies (EMEs), as indicators for Mexico suggested a return to a more sustainable pace of economic growth and as investment decelerated in China. Inflation increased in most AFEs in recent months but remained significantly below central bank targets. Inflation in the EMEs also moved up, driven largely by a rebound in Chinese food prices and, in some countries, by the effects of currency depreciation. Staff Review of the Financial SituationOver the intermeeting period, incoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications reinforced market participants' expectations for an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the December meeting. Asset price movements as well as changes in the expected path for U.S. monetary policy beyond December appeared to be driven largely by expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy in the aftermath of U.S. elections. Nominal Treasury yields rose across the maturity spectrum, and measures of inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities continued to move up. Meanwhile, broad equity price indexes increased, and credit spreads on corporate bonds narrowed. Most private borrowing rates increased somewhat, but financing conditions for nonfinancial firms and households remained broadly accommodative. Market expectations for an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the December meeting rose over the intermeeting period. By the end of the period, quotes on federal funds futures contracts, without adjustment for term premiums, suggested that market participants saw a nearly 95 percent probability of a rate hike. In addition, the expected federal funds rate path over the next few years implied by quotes on overnight index swap (OIS) rates steepened. Most of the steepening of the expected policy path occurred following the U.S. elections, reportedly in part reflecting investors' perception that the incoming Congress and Administration would enact significant fiscal stimulus measures. Market-based measures of uncertainty regarding monetary policy at horizons beyond one year moved up, suggesting that some of the firming in OIS rates could reflect a rise in term premiums. Consistent with market-based estimates, respondents to the Desk's December surveys of primary dealers and market participants assigned a probability near 90 percent to a rate hike in December. Nominal Treasury yields moved up considerably since the November FOMC meeting. Intermediate- and longer-term yields were boosted by roughly equal increases in real yields and inflation compensation. Measures of inflation compensation extended an upward trajectory that began around midyear. Changes in market quotes for inflation caps and floors suggested that the rise in inflation compensation reflected in part higher costs of protection against above-target inflation outcomes. The rise in inflation compensation appeared to be spurred in part by the recent climb in oil prices, with a notable jump after OPEC's agreement at its November 30 meeting to cut production. Broad U.S. equity price indexes rose over the intermeeting period, apparently boosted by investors' expectations of stronger earnings growth and improved risk sentiment, with much of the rally coming after the U.S. elections. Share prices for the financial sector outperformed the broader market, while stock prices in sectors that typically benefit from lower interest rates, such as utilities, underperformed. Implied volatility in equity markets decreased, and yield spreads of nonfinancial corporate bonds over those of comparable-maturity Treasury securities narrowed for both investment- and speculative-grade firms. Available reports suggested that earnings for firms in the S&P 500 index increased in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the improvement in earnings was broad based across sectors. Money market flows continued to stabilize over the intermeeting period following outsized movements in the period before implementation of MMF reforms in mid-October. Assets under management at government MMFs rose modestly, while assets at prime MMFs were about unchanged. In addition, outstanding levels of commercial paper (CP) and negotiable certificates of deposit were stable. The effective federal funds rate remained well within the FOMC's target range. Rates on overnight Eurodollar deposits, CP, and other short-term unsecured instruments were close to the federal funds rate. Overnight Treasury repo rates declined in mid-November but stayed above the ON RRP offering rate. Rates on term money market instruments increased, consistent with firming expectations for a December rate hike. Financing conditions for nonfinancial firms remained generally accommodative. Although gross issuance of corporate bonds slowed notably in October and November from the brisk pace in the third quarter, the decrease in corporate bond spreads after the U.S. elections suggests that the lower issuance did not reflect a tightening of financial conditions. In addition, growth in commercial and industrial loans from banks picked up after having dipped some during the third quarter, issuance of leveraged loans by nonbanks was robust, and CP outstanding at nonfinancial firms increased on balance. The credit quality of nonfinancial corporations remained solid. The volume of corporate bond rating downgrades in October and November outpaced that of upgrades but was moderate compared with rates seen in the first half of the year. Default rates and expected year-ahead default rates for nonfinancial firms declined modestly over the intermeeting period, although both remained somewhat elevated compared with their ranges in recent years. Indicators of supply and demand conditions for small business credit were generally unchanged over the past quarter, with demand appearing to remain weak. Gross issuance of municipal bonds remained solid in October, and the credit quality of state and local governments was stable, as the number of ratings downgrades only moderately outpaced the number of upgrades in October and November. Yields on general obligation bonds rose somewhat more than those on comparable-maturity Treasury securities over the intermeeting period, reportedly reflecting expected reductions in the tax benefit of municipal bonds. Financing conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) also remained largely accommodative. The average rate of growth of CRE loans at banks continued to be strong in October and November. Spreads on commercial mortgage-backed securities narrowed a little over the intermeeting period, and issuance of such securities continued to outpace that of the first half of 2016. The interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate residential mortgages moved up in line with Treasury yields, although the rate remained low by historical standards and mortgage availability appeared little changed. Likely in part because of the increase in mortgage rates, refinance originations decreased in November, but purchase originations were little changed. Consumer credit continued to be readily available for most borrowers, and overall loan balances increased about 6 percent over the 12 months ending in September. In the subprime sector, credit card lending standards appeared to remain tight, and extensions of new credit to subprime auto loan borrowers edged down in the third quarter. Measures of consumer credit quality were little changed in the third quarter. Foreign financial markets responded primarily to U.S. developments over the intermeeting period, as market participants assessed the effects of potential policy changes resulting from the U.S. elections on foreign economies. Spillovers from U.S. markets lifted yields and equity prices in most AFEs, but higher yields in the United States seemed to weigh on investor sentiment toward EMEs, where prices of risky assets declined. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar appreciated notably against both AFE and EME currencies. In particular, the dollar strengthened about 10 percent against the Japanese yen and 5 percent against the Mexican peso. The declines in EME currencies and risky asset prices were reportedly driven by higher U.S. yields as well as by uncertainty about possible changes in U.S. trade policies. Currency weakness prompted some EME central banks, such as the Bank of Mexico and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, to tighten monetary policy. However, the Central Bank of Brazil eased monetary policy to support economic growth. In the euro area, investors were attentive to the constitutional referendum in Italy and the December meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). In Italy, the "No" vote on constitutional reform and the subsequent resignation of the prime minister raised concerns that recapitalization of the country's banking sector would become more difficult. However, these developments left little imprint on financial markets on net. At its December meeting, the ECB extended its asset purchase program for a longer period of time than market participants anticipated while reducing the pace of asset purchases. In addition, the minimum maturity for eligible securities was lowered, and the limitation on purchases of securities with a yield below the deposit facility rate was relaxed. As a result, sovereign yield curves in the euro area steepened somewhat. Staff Economic OutlookIn the U.S. economic projection prepared by the staff for the December FOMC meeting, the near-term forecast was little changed from the projection prepared for the November meeting. Real GDP growth in the second half of 2016 was still expected to be faster than in the first half. The staff's forecast for real GDP growth over the next several years was slightly higher, on balance, largely reflecting the effects of the staff's provisional assumption that fiscal policy would be more expansionary in the coming years. These effects were substantially counterbalanced by the restraint from the higher assumed paths for longer-term interest rates and the foreign exchange value of the dollar. The staff projected that real GDP would expand at a modestly faster pace than potential output in 2017 through 2019. The unemployment rate was forecast to edge down gradually, on net, and to continue to run below the staff's estimate of its longer-run natural rate through the end of 2019; the path for the unemployment rate was a little lower than in the previous projection. The near-term forecast for consumer price inflation was somewhat higher than in the previous projection, reflecting recent increases in energy prices. Beyond the near term, the inflation forecast was little revised. The staff continued to project that inflation would edge up over the next several years, as food and energy prices along with the prices of non-energy imports were expected to begin steadily rising in 2017. However, inflation was projected to be marginally below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent in 2019. The staff viewed the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average of the past 20 years. The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that monetary policy appeared to be better positioned to offset large positive shocks than substantial adverse ones. In addition, the staff continued to see the risks to the forecast from developments abroad as skewed to the downside. Consistent with the downside risks to aggregate demand, the staff viewed the risks to its outlook for the unemployment rate as tilted to the upside. The risks to the projection for inflation were seen as roughly balanced. The downside risks from the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations may have edged lower or that the dollar could appreciate more than anticipated were seen as roughly counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to continue operating above its long-run potential. Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic OutlookIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of the Board of Governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real output growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2016 through 2019 and over the longer run, based on their individual assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate.6 The longer-run projections represented each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. These projections and policy assessments are described in the Summary of Economic Projections, which is an addendum to these minutes. In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, participants agreed that information received over the intermeeting period indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace since midyear. Job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined. Household spending had been rising moderately, but business fixed investment remained soft. Inflation had increased since earlier in the year but was still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation had moved up considerably but still were low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months. Participants expected that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions would strengthen somewhat further. Inflation was expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy prices and non-energy import prices dissipated and the labor market strengthened further. Participants indicated that recently available economic data had been broadly in line with their expectations, and they judged that near-term risks to the economic outlook appeared roughly balanced. Moreover, participants generally made only modest changes to their forecasts for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation. About half of the participants incorporated an assumption of more expansionary fiscal policy in their forecasts. In their discussion of their economic forecasts, participants emphasized their considerable uncertainty about the timing, size, and composition of any future fiscal and other economic policy initiatives as well as about how those policies might affect aggregate demand and supply. Several participants pointed out that, depending on the mix of tax, spending, regulatory, and other possible policy changes, economic growth might turn out to be faster or slower than they currently anticipated. However, almost all also indicated that the upside risks to their forecasts for economic growth had increased as a result of prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years. Many participants underscored the need to continue to weigh other risks and uncertainties attending the economic outlook. In that regard, several noted upside risks to U.S. economic activity from the potential for better-than-expected economic growth abroad or an acceleration of domestic business investment. Among the downside risks cited were the possibility of additional appreciation of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, financial vulnerabilities in some foreign economies, and the proximity of the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound. Several participants also commented on the uncertainty about the outlook for productivity growth or about the potential effects of tight labor markets on labor supply and inflation. For some participants, the greater upside risks to economic growth, the upward movement in inflation compensation over recent months, or the possibility of further increases in oil prices had increased the upside risks to their inflation forecasts. However, several others pointed out that a further rise in the dollar might continue to hold down inflation. Participants generally agreed that they should continue to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. Regarding the household sector, the available information indicated that consumer spending had been rising at a moderate rate, on balance, since midyear. Participants cited a number of factors likely to support continued moderate gains in consumer spending. Consumer confidence remained positive. The outlook was for further solid gains in jobs and income, and household balance sheets had improved. The personal saving rate was still relatively high, and household wealth had been boosted by ongoing gains in housing and equity prices. In the housing market, recent data on starts and permits for new residential construction suggested a firming in residential investment after two quarters of decline. Several participants commented that housing activity appeared to be gaining momentum in their Districts, and it was noted that the rate of new construction still appeared to be low relative to levels that would be expected based on the longer-run rate of household formation. The outlook for the business sector improved over the intermeeting period. Although nonresidential investment was still weak and equipment spending had been flat in the third quarter, orders for nondefense capital goods and the number of drilling rigs in operation had both turned up recently. A couple of participants reported plans for a pickup in capital spending by businesses in their Districts, driven by stronger demand and increasing revenues. Surveys and information gathered from contacts in several Districts indicated an improvement in manufacturing activity as well as expectations for further gains in factory production in the near term. And the recent firming in oil prices, if sustained, was anticipated to boost domestic energy production. In contrast, conditions in the agricultural sector remained depressed, and a couple of reports highlighted softer activity in some service-sector industries. More generally, participants reported that many of their District business contacts expressed greater optimism about the economic outlook, and several participants commented that the improved sentiment could spur stronger investment spending. Some contacts thought that their businesses could benefit from possible changes in federal spending, tax, and regulatory policies, while others were uncertain about the outlook for significant government policy changes or were concerned that their businesses might be adversely affected by some of the proposals under discussion. Labor market conditions continued to improve over the intermeeting period. Monthly increases in nonfarm payroll employment averaged nearly 180,000 over the three months ending in November, in line with the average pace of job creation over the past year. The unemployment rate dropped markedly to 4.6 percent in November; a few participants suggested that part of the decline might be reversed in coming months. Most participants viewed the cumulative progress in the labor market as having brought labor market conditions to or close to those consistent with the Committee's maximum-employment objective. Over the past year, broad measures of labor underutilization that include both the unemployed and workers marginally attached to the labor force had trended lower, the labor force participation rate had been relatively steady despite downward pressure from demographic trends, and layoffs had fallen to low levels. National surveys reported that job availability was high and that firms were increasingly finding their job openings hard to fill. Some participants commented that some businesses in their Districts were experiencing shortages of skilled workers in some occupations or were needing to offer higher wages to fill positions. However, some others noted that aggregate measures of wages were still rising at a subdued pace, suggesting that upward pressure on wages had not become widespread. Participants expected the labor market to strengthen somewhat further over the medium run, with almost all anticipating that the unemployment rate over the next couple of years would run below their estimates of its longer-run normal level. Some participants saw the possibility that an extended period during which labor markets remained relatively tight could continue to shrink remaining margins of underutilization, including the still-high level of prime-age workers outside the labor force and elevated levels of involuntary part-time employment and long-duration unemployment. A few added that continued gradual strengthening in labor markets would help return inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective. But some other participants were uncertain that a period of tight labor utilization would yield lasting labor market benefits or were concerned that it risked a buildup of inflationary pressures. Most participants expected that if economic growth remained moderate, as they projected, the unemployment rate would be only modestly below their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment over the next few years, but several anticipated a more substantial undershoot. A few participants noted the uncertainty surrounding real-time estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment, and it was pointed out that geographic variation in labor market conditions contributed to that uncertainty. In discussing the possible implications of a more significant undershooting of the longer-run normal rate, many participants emphasized that, as the economic outlook evolved, timely adjustments to monetary policy could be required to achieve and maintain both the Committee's maximum-employment and inflation objectives. Participants generally viewed the information on inflation received over the intermeeting period as reinforcing their expectation that inflation would rise to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. The 12-month change in the headline PCE price index moved up further to 1.4 percent in October, as the rise in energy prices since the spring offset much of the decline earlier in the year. Although the headline measure was still below 2 percent, it had increased more than 1 percentage point over the past year. Core PCE price inflation had also moved up moderately over the past year, and, over the 12 months ending in October, it was 1.7 percent for a third consecutive month. Median 5- to-10-year inflation expectations in the Michigan survey were, on balance, stable in November and early December, just above the low recorded in October. Market-based measures of inflation compensation had moved up considerably over the intermeeting period. A few participants added that other readings from financial markets, such as implied probabilities of various inflation outcomes derived from inflation derivatives, pricing in the inflation swaps market, and the apparent upward shift of the estimated term premium in the 10-year Treasury yield, suggested that the risks to the inflation outlook had become more balanced around the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. A couple of participants noted that the recent firming in oil prices might have contributed to the changes in these market-based measures. Several, however, pointed out that market-based measures of inflation compensation were still low or that downside risks to inflation remained, given the recent further appreciation of the dollar. Most participants attributed the substantial changes in financial market conditions over the intermeeting period--including the increase in longer-term interest rates, the strengthening of the dollar, the rise in equity prices, and the narrowing of credit spreads--to expectations for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years or to possible reductions in corporate tax rates. Many participants expressed the need for caution in evaluating the implications of recent financial market developments for the economic outlook, in light of the uncertainty about how federal spending, tax, and regulatory policies might unfold and how global economic and financial conditions will evolve. In their consideration of economic conditions and monetary policy, participants agreed that sufficient evidence had accumulated of continued progress toward the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation to warrant an increase of 25 basis points in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting. Participants judged that, even after the increase in the target range, the stance of policy would remain accommodative, consistent with some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return of inflation to 2 percent over the medium term. Participants discussed the implications of the economic outlook for the likely future path of the target range for the federal funds rate. Most participants judged that a gradual pace of rate increases was likely to be appropriate to promote the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. A gradual pace was also viewed by some participants as likely to be warranted because the proximity of the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound placed constraints on the ability of monetary policy to respond to adverse shocks to the aggregate demand for goods and services. In addition, the neutral real rate--defined as the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is operating at or near its potential--still appeared to be low by historical standards, and it was noted that gradual increases in the federal funds rate over the next few years probably would be sufficient to return to a neutral policy stance. While viewing a gradual approach to policy firming as likely to be appropriate, participants emphasized the need to adjust the policy path as economic conditions evolved. They pointed to a number of risks that, if realized, might call for a different path of policy than they currently expected. Moreover, uncertainty regarding fiscal and other economic policies had increased. Participants agreed that it was too early to know what changes in these policies would be implemented and how such changes might alter the economic outlook. It was also noted that fiscal and other policies were only some of the many factors that could influence the economic outlook and thus the appropriate course of monetary policy. Moreover, many participants emphasized that the greater uncertainty about these policies made it more challenging to communicate to the public about the likely path of the federal funds rate. Participants noted that, in the circumstances of heightened uncertainty, it was especially important that the Committee continue to underscore in its communications that monetary policy would continue to be set to promote attainment of the Committee's statutory objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Many participants judged that the risk of a sizable undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate had increased somewhat and that the Committee might need to raise the federal funds rate more quickly than currently anticipated to limit the degree of undershooting and stem a potential buildup of inflationary pressures. However, with inflation still below the Committee's 2 percent objective, it was noted that downside risks to inflation remained and that a moderate undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate could help return inflation to 2 percent. A couple of participants expressed concern that the Committee's communications about a gradual pace of policy firming might be misunderstood as a commitment to only one or two rate hikes per year; participants agreed that policy would need to respond appropriately to the evolving outlook. Several participants noted circumstances that might warrant changes to the path for the federal funds rate could also have implications for the reinvestment of proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. Committee Policy ActionIn their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members judged that the information received since the Committee met in November indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace since midyear. Job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined. Household spending had been rising moderately, but business fixed investment had remained soft. Inflation had increased since earlier this year but was still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation had moved up considerably but still were low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed on balance. With respect to the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions would strengthen somewhat further. They generally observed that labor market conditions had improved appreciably over the past year and that labor market slack had declined. Members agreed that there was heightened uncertainty about possible changes in fiscal and other economic policies as well as their effects. However, members also agreed that near-term risks to the economic outlook appeared roughly balanced. Some members saw, with gradual adjustments of the stance of monetary policy, only modest risk of a scenario in which an undershooting of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment would create a sharp acceleration in prices. These members observed that inflation continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent objective and that wage gains had been subdued, and they expressed the view that inflation was likely to rise gradually, giving monetary policy time to respond if necessary. Several members noted that if the labor market appeared to be tightening significantly more than expected, it might become necessary to adjust the Committee's communications about the expected path of the federal funds rate, consistent with the possibility that a less gradual pace of increases could become appropriate. At this meeting, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, inflation would rise to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy prices and non-energy import prices dissipated and the labor market strengthened further. This view was reinforced by the rise in inflation in recent months and by recent increases in inflation compensation. Against this backdrop and in light of the current shortfall in inflation from 2 percent, members agreed that they would continue to closely monitor actual and expected progress toward the Committee's inflation goal. After assessing the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, members agreed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. This increase in the target range was viewed as appropriate in light of the considerable progress that had been made toward the Committee's objective of maximum employment and, in view of the rise in inflation since earlier in the year, the Committee's confidence that inflation would rise to 2 percent in the medium term. Members judged that, even after this increase in the target range, the stance of monetary policy remained accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. The Committee agreed that, in determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, it would assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee expected that economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate and that the federal funds rate was likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, members emphasized that the actual path of the federal funds rate would depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. The Committee also decided to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipated doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. Members noted that this policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, to be released at 2:00 p.m.: "Effective December 15, 2016, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1/2 to 3/4 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 0.50 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day. The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction and to continue reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions." The vote also encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:00 p.m.: "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions." Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C. Dudley, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Stanley Fischer, Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, Jerome H. Powell, Eric Rosengren, and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against this action: None. To support the Committee's decision to raise the target range for the federal funds rate, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to raise the interest rates on required and excess reserve balances 1/4 percentage point, to 3/4 percent, effective December 15, 2016. The Board of Governors also voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate (discount rate) to 1-1/4 percent, effective December 15, 2016.7 It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday-Wednesday, January 31-February 1, 2017. The meeting adjourned at 10:05 a.m. on December 14, 2016. Notation VoteBy notation vote completed on November 22, 2016, the Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the Committee meeting held on November 1-2, 2016. _____________________________ Brian F. MadiganSecretary2017-02-23 03:38:12
[김대호 박사] 국제유가의 경제학, 배럴당 75달러  중대 분수령....WTI 1.2%↑ 상승마감  환율 금시세 금리 코스피 코스닥 영향은?

[김대호 박사] 국제유가의 경제학, 배럴당 75달러 중대 분수령....WTI 1.2%↑ 상승마감 환율 금시세 금리 코스피 코스닥 영향은?

국제유가가 상승마감했다. 22일 미국 뉴욕상업거래소(NYMEX)에 따르면 미국의 주종 원유인 서부텍사스산 원유(WTI) 3월 인도분이 배럴당 54.06달러로 마감했다. 전일 대비 66센트, 비율로는 1.2% 오른 것이다. OPEC 회원국과 비회원국 간의 산유량 감축 협상이 이행되고 있는 데다 트럼프 미국 대통령의 감세정책으로 미국 경제가 활황 조짐을 보이고 있는데 따른 것이다. 국제유가의 상승은 비산유국인 한국의 입장에서 보면 악재일 수 있다. 생산코스트가 올라가 우리 경제에 부담을 줄 수 있다. 그러나 적어도 현 단계에서는 국제유가 상승이 오히려 한국 경제에 유리하게 작용할 것이라는 전망이 적지 않다. 우리나라는 산유국은 아니지만 원유를 들여다 정유를 하는 가공국이다. 정유제품을 수출하고 있다. 그동안 국제 유가 하락으로 우리나라 정유업체들이 큰 고통을 겪어왔다. 한국 전체 수출도 줄었다. 이런 상황에서 국제유가의 상승은 한국경제의 상승요인이다. 코스피 코스닥에도 활기를 줄 수 있다. 문제는 여기에도 임계점이 있다는 사실이다. 전문가들사이에서는 올해 75달러선이 분수령이 될 것이라는 견해가 많다. 배럴당 75달러까지는 플러스 요인이지만 그 이상으로 국제유가가 치솟으면 큰 충격을 받을 수도 있다는 것이다. 모든 가격이 그러하듯이 국제유가도 너무 올라도 문제, 너무 내려도 문제다. 당분간 국제유가를 주목해 볼 필요가 있다.2017-02-22 07:53:33
[환율 긴급진단] 4월 위기설, 트럼프의 환율조작국 지정이 다가온다.. 중국 한국 일본엔화 원화환율 어디로, 금시세 국제유가 뉴욕증시 휘청

[환율 긴급진단] 4월 위기설, 트럼프의 환율조작국 지정이 다가온다.. 중국 한국 일본엔화 원화환율 어디로, 금시세 국제유가 뉴욕증시 휘청

달러 인덱스가 다시 급락하고 있다. 이른바 환율 분수령으로 불리는 마의 100선 아래로 다시 떨어질 형세다. 17일 뉴욕 외환시장에 따르면 달러 인덱스(DXY:CUR)는 100.520 USD를 지나고 있다. 전일대비 0.660, 비율로는 0.65% 하락한 것이다. 달러 인덱스는 전 세계 주요 통화에 대한 달러 환율의 가중평균 교환비율이다. 달러 인덱스 하락은 달러가치 하락을 의미한다. 재닛 옐런 미국 연준 의장이 3월 금리인상을 예고한 상황에서 미국 달러가치가 하락하는 것은 매우 이례적이다. 월가에서는 3월 금리인상은 이미 예고된 것으로 그 파장이 그리 크지 않을 것으로 보고 있는 것이다, 월가가 정말로 주목하고 있는 대목은 트럼프 정책의 환율 정책이다. 트럼프 대통령이 대선공약에서 약속한 대로 4월에 중국을 환율조작국으로 지정할 경우 미국 달러의 가치 하락이 예상된다. 중국뿐 아니라 한국 일본 대만도 그 대상으로 거론되고 있다. 이 경우 우리나라 원화환율도 크게 떨어질 수 있을 것으로 보인다. 트럼프 압력 때문에 원화 강세 시대가 올 수 있다는 것이다. 4월 위기설의 핵이기도 하다. 환율이 흔들리면 국제 유가와 금 시세 그리고 뉴욕증시도 요동치게 된다 다음은 달러 인덱스 변동 내역. OPEN 100.960DAY RANGE 100.410 - 101.050PREVIOUS CLOSE 101.18052WK RANGE 91.919 - 103.820YTD RETURN -1.65%2017-02-17 06:27:13
[경제박사 김대호] 원화 빨간불, 달러 엔화 환율 긴급진단...바보야 문제는 경상수지야!

[경제박사 김대호] 원화 빨간불, 달러 엔화 환율 긴급진단...바보야 문제는 경상수지야!

우리나라 원화 값이 더 오를 것이라고 블룸버그가 예견하고 나섰다. 미국의 한 언론은 14일 “바보야 문제는 경상수지 흑자야” “ It’s The Current Account Stupid”라는 제목의 기사에서 한국과 태국의 통화 가치가 가장 크게 오를 것이라고 내다봤다. 이 언론은 그 근거로 경상수지 흑자를 거론했다. 이 기사에서 1월중 한국의 수출이 11.2% 증가한 사실을 주목할 필요가 있다고 강조했다. 전년 동기대비 증가율 11.2% 는 2012년 이후 가장 높은 것이다. "South Korean exports climbed 11.2 percent in January from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2012." 그 결과 한국의 외환보유액은 3740억달러를 기록하고 있다.(South Korea is sitting on $374 billion of reserves.) 또 해외펀드들이 올 들어서만 한국 채권을 무려 36억달러 사들인 사실도 주목했다. ( Foreign funds have pumped $3.6 billion into South Korean sovereign notes in 2017, the most in developing-nation Asia) 한국 채권 매입이 느는 요인은 두 가지로 분석되고 있다. 그 첫째는 한국의 낮은 금리이다. 금리가 낮은 만큼 앞으로 수익률이 대폭 오를 여지가 많다는 것이다. 둘째 이유는 원화의 통화가치 전망이다. 수출 증가와 경상수지 흑자 확대로 원화의 통화 가치가 급등할 가능성이 높다는 것이다. 코스피와 코스닥에도 같은 이유로 돈이 몰려들 수 있다. 또 올 들어 원화가치가 달러 대비 4.9%나 절상되었으며 이 같은 추세가 앞으로도 이어질 것이라고 전망했다. 北미사일 발사 이후 북한은 크고 큰 문제라는 트럼프의 발언이 있었지만 경제적인 요인에서는 원화의 강세 가능성이 여전히 높다는 것이다.2017-02-14 08:29:57
[김대호박사 뉴욕증시] 상승마감, 트럼프 발언 때문에...phenomenal 의미는?  국제유가 금시세 환율 흔들흔들

[김대호박사 뉴욕증시] 상승마감, 트럼프 발언 때문에...phenomenal 의미는? 국제유가 금시세 환율 흔들흔들

뉴욕증시가 또 신기록을 세웠다. 다우지수와 나스닥 지수 모두 사상최고치를 기록했다. 10일 뉴욕 증권거래소에 따르면 다우지수 나스닥지수 그리고 러셀지수 등이 일제히 오르고 있다. 이날 뉴욕증시 상승은 트럼프가 이끌고 있다. 트럼프 대통령의 발언 이후 주가가 급격하게 올랐다. 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령은 이날 기업인들과 만난 자리에서 대대적인 감면을 내용으로 하는 파격적인 세금정책을 곧 내놓겠다고 밝혔다. "세금에 관한 뭔가 획기적인 것을 2~3주 후 발표할 것이라고 말했다. 트럼프 대통령이 사용한 영어단어는 "phenomenal"이다 "phenomenal" 이란 우리말로는 경이적으로 해석할 수 있다. wonderful, marvelous, extraordinary, amazing, phenomenal, remarkable, miraculous등과 유사한 뜻이다. 이 발언 이후 투자자들이 사자 쪽으로 일제히 돌아서 주가가 오르고 있다. 트럽프 대통령의 "phenomenal'발언은 항공업체 경영자들과 만난 자리에서 나왔다. 이 발언은 국제유가 금시세 환율 등에도 큰 영향을 줄 것으로 보인다. 뉴욕증시 주가지수 <오전 5시 현재> NASDAQ 5719.91 37.46 ▲ 0.66% NASDAQ-100 (NDX) 5219.07 22.49 ▲ 0.43%Pre-Market (NDX) 5199.43 2.85 ▲ 0.05%After Hours (NDX) 5195.42 -1.16 ▼ 0.02%DJIA 20197.66 143.32 ▲ 0.71%S&P 500 2310.36 15.69 ▲ 0.68%Russell 2000 1377.71 18.98 ▲ 1.40%2017-02-10 05:50:24
[경제박사 김대호] 환율전쟁이 온다, 트럼프 탓에 세계경제 덜 안전...대대적 감세 발언 이후, 국제유가 금시세 뉴욕증시 코스피 코스닥은

[경제박사 김대호] 환율전쟁이 온다, 트럼프 탓에 세계경제 덜 안전...대대적 감세 발언 이후, 국제유가 금시세 뉴욕증시 코스피 코스닥은

미국 달러화가 큰 폭으로 올르고 있다. 10일 뉴욕외환시장에 따르면 달러인덱스는 100.590 USD을 지나고 있다. 세벽 3시까지만 해도 100선 붕괴가 우려될 정도였으나 한시간 전 부터 긍상승세로 반전했다. 달러인덱스는 전일대비 0.310포인트, 비율로는 0.31% 올랐다. 트럼프 대통령이 조만간 대대적인 감세정책을 발표할 것이라는 발언을 한 이후 달러가 큰 폭으로 치솟고 있다. 글로벌경제연구소 김대호 소장은 10일 이와관련 sbs cnbc 방송에 출연 특별방송을 했다. 김대호 박사는 이 방송에서 트럼프 시대 미국과 중국의 갈등에 대해서도 언급했다. 미국 중국의 경제전쟁이 무역에 이어 환율로 확대되고 있는 상황에 대한 분석도 했다. 김대호박사는 또 환율보고서, 중국 환율조작국 지정 4월 위기설 미-중간 환율전쟁 등에 대해 설명했다, 이밖에도 트럼프 미국 대통령의 국가무역위원(NTC) 신설, 초대 위원장 피터 나바로 교수 임명 중국의 외환보유액 3조 달러 붕괴 그리고 중국 환율조작국 지정이후 원화환율 전망등을 했다. 트럼프 발언 이후 국제유가는 상승하고있다. 반면 금값은 반락세를 보이고 있다. 다음은 김대호 박사의 방송 동영상2017-02-10 04:27:31
[경제박사 김대호] 중국 외환보유액 3조달러 끝내 붕괴, 환율 전쟁이 다가온다... 트럼프 시대 국제유가 금시세 뉴욕증시 분석과 전망

[경제박사 김대호] 중국 외환보유액 3조달러 끝내 붕괴, 환율 전쟁이 다가온다... 트럼프 시대 국제유가 금시세 뉴욕증시 분석과 전망

중국의 외환보유액이3조달러선이 끝내 무너졌다. 외환보유액이란 그 나라 중앙은행이 보유하고 있는 국제유동성이다. 미국 달러 등 신용도가 높은 국제기축통화와 금 등이 이 외환보유액에 포함된다. 외환보유액은 비상상황에 다른 나라에 지급할 수 있는 일종의 국가 비상금이라고 할 수 있다. 외환보유액이 얼마냐에 따라 국가신인도가 좌우될 정도로 국가경제 운영에 있어 매우 중요한 의미를 지닌다. 1980년대 초 개혁개방 이후 중국은 줄곧 외환보유액을 늘려왔다. 경상수지 흑자와 외국인 투자 증가로 해외로부터 돈이 마구 유입된 결과이다. 2000년대 초부터 중국은 세계에서 외환보유액이 가장 많은 나라라는 지위를 이어왔다. 중국의 외환보유액은 2015년 6월 4조 달러로 사상최고 기록을 세운 이후 돌연 감소세로 돌아섰다. 외환보유액 감소의 가장 큰 이유는 환율방어이다. 미국이 2014년 12월 금리인상을 단행한 이후 중국 등 신흥국에서는 이른바 긴축발작현상이 야기됐다. 중국에 들어와 있던 외국인 돈이 높아지는 금리를 좇아 미국으로 환류하기 시작한 것이다. 그 결과로 중국 외환시장에서는 달러의 양이 줄었다. 수요 공급원칙에 따라 양이 줄면 가격은 올라갈 수밖에 없다. 긴축발작현상으로 중국에 달러가 줄면서 미국달러가치가 높아졌다. 달러가치의 상승은 중국 외환시장에서 그 반대 교환관계에 있는 중국 위안화의 하락으로 이어졌다. 위안화 하락은 또 증시 폭락으로 이어졌다. 이 같은 위안화 하락으로 2015년 여름 중국 상하이지수는 5400에서 2700으로 반 토막이 났다. 상황이 급박해지자 중국 정부는 위안화 가치 방어에 나섰다. 긴축발작으로 야기된 위안화 가치 폭락을 막는 유일한 방법은 인민은행의 외환보유액을 푸는 것이다. 외환보유액으로 편입되어있던 달러 등을 외환시장에 내놓는 방식으로 환율방어를 한 것이다. 외환보유고 달러를 풀어 그 돈으로 위안화를 사 모으면 중국금융시장에서 달러 가치는 내리고 위안화 가치는 오르게 된다. 달러의 양은 늘고 반대로 위안화 양을 줄어들기 때문이다. 중국은 2015년 이후 이러한 방식으로 위안화 가치를 방어하려고 노력해왔다. 이 과정에서 중국의 외환보유액은 꾸준히 줄었다. 그렇다고 위안화 방어에 완벽하게 성공한 것도 아니다. 외환보유액 살포에도 불구하고 헤지펀드 들은 지속적으로 위안화를 팔아치웠다. 국제투자가들은 장기적으로 위안화가 대세 하락할 것으로 보고 숏 베팅 이어갔다. 이 바람에 위안화는 계속 하락세를 이어갔다. 인민은행이 외환보유액을 푸는 바람에 위안화의 일시적 폭락은 막을 수 있었지만 대세 하락을 막지는 못했다. 위안화는 지금도 슬금슬금 하락하고 있다. 중국의 외환보유액은 지난 12월 말 현재 급기야 3조105억 달러로 줄어들었다. 지난 1년 동안 무려 1조 달러나 줄어든 것이다. 몰론 중국의 외환보유액은 여전히 세계에서 가장 많다. 수출이 줄었다고는 하지만 그래도 경상수지는 여전히 흑자이다. 적어도 앞으로 수년 내에 중국이 디폴트 위기에 빠질 가능성도 거의 없다. 그럼에도 불구하고 외환보유액 3조 달러 붕괴를 눈앞에 둔 중국의 걱정은 결코 적지 않다. 그동안 시장에서는 3조 달러를 심리적 마지노선으로 간주해왔다. 외환보유액이 너무 빠른 속도로 줄면 시장의 불안은 커질 수밖에 없다. 3조 달러 이하에서는 인민은행이 더 이상 환율 방어에 나서지 못할 것이라는 걱정도 있다. 외환보유액 3조 달러 선을 방어하자니 위안화 환율 7위안선 붕괴가 우려된다. 그렇다고 환율 7위안 선을 지켜내자니 외환보유액 3조 달러 선이 위태롭다. 자칫 잘못하면 또 다시 중국 발 쇼크가 올 수도 있다. 이 3·7 방어선 붕괴 위기를 어떻게 수습해 해낼 것인지. 중국의 선택에 세계의 이목이 집중되고 있다. <김대호 주필/ 경제학 박사>2017-02-08 07:53:38