미국 에너지청 EIA는 20일 공개한 단기 에너지 전망 보고서 SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK에서 영국의 주종 원유인 북해 브렌트유 North Sea Brent crude oil 의 현물 spot prices가 배럴당 평균 $46에 달했다고 밝혔다.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $51/b in 2017 and $52/b in 2018, $2/b and $4/b lower than projected in last month's STEO, respectively.
EIA는 또 미국의 서부텍사스산은 올해 49달러 그리고 내년에 평균 51달러에 달할 것이라고 내다봤다.
이 또한 당초 예상보다 2달러씩 떨어진 것이다.
NYMEX contract values for October 2017 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 6 suggest that a range of $36/b to $60/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in October 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
다음은 EIA SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK리포트 주요 내용
Average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to be $2/b lower than the Brent price in both 2017 and 2018.
NYMEX contract values for October 2017 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 6 suggest that a range of $36/b to $60/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in October 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.35 per gallon (gal) in June, down 4 cents/gal from the average in May. During the April-through-September summer driving season of 2017, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.38/gal, 15 cents/gal higher than last summer. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.32/gal in 2017 and $2.33/gal in 2018.
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and is forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA forecasts production to average 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
Dry natural gas production is forecast to average 73.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.0 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. Forecast dry natural gas production increases by an average of 3.1 Bcf/d in 2018.
Natural gas storage injections typically occur from April through the first half of November. EIA projects that natural gas inventories will be 3,940 Bcf at the end of October 2017, which would be 2% higher than the five-year average but 2% lower than the record high end-of-October level from 2016.
Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are forecast to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2017 and $3.40/MMBtu in 2018, compared with a 2016 average of $2.51/MMBtu, which was the lowest annual average price since 1999.
EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from 34% in 2016 to 31% in both 2017 and 2018 as a result of higher expected natural gas prices and higher electricity generation from renewable sources. Coal's forecast generation share rises from 30% in 2016 to 31% in both 2017 and 2018. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to provide 9% of electricity generation in 2017 and nearly 10% in 2018. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to be about 7% in both 2017 and 2018. The nuclear share of generation remains just under 20% in both 2017 and 2018.
After declining by 1.7% in 2016, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are forecast to decrease by 0.6% in 2017 and increase by 1.7% in 2018. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, and energy prices.
한편 국제유가는 현지시간 19일 미국 뉴욕상업거래소 NYMEX 에서 미국의 주종 서부텍사스산 원유 WTI 8월분이 전일 대비 0.72달러, 비율로는 1.6% 오른 배럴당 47.12달러로 장을 마쳤다.
이는 6주 만에 가장 높은 가격이다.
다음은 상품별 국제유가.
한국시간 20일 오전 8시 상황
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) USD/bbl. 47.10 -0.02 -0.04% Aug 2017 6:34 PM
Brent Crude (ICE) USD/bbl. 49.58 +0.74 +1.52% Sep 2017 5:54 PM
RBOB Gasoline (Nymex) USd/gal. 161.76 +0.07 +0.04% Aug 2017 6:21 PM
Natural Gas (Nymex) USD/MMBtu 3.07 +0.00 +0.03% Aug 2017 6:29 PM
Heating Oil (Nymex) USd/gal. 155.11 -0.03 -0.02% Aug 2017 6:30 PM
김재희 기자 yoonsk828@g-enews.com
