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[김박사 진단] 금리인상 폭풍이 온다, 미국 연준 FOMC 만장일치 동결과 한국은행의 고민 그리고 뉴욕증시 코스피 환율

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[김박사 진단] 금리인상 폭풍이 온다, 미국 연준 FOMC 만장일치 동결과 한국은행의 고민 그리고 뉴욕증시 코스피 환율

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[김박사 진단] 금리인상 폭풍이 온다. 미국 연준 FOMC 금리동결로 한국은행의 고민의 골이 깊어질 것으로 보인다. 사진=글로벌이코노믹
미국 중앙은행격인 연방준비제도(이하 연준)이 기준금리를 동결했다. 최근 세번 연속으로 이어온 기준금리 인하행진이 끝난 것이다.

경기부진으로 추가 금리인하를 준비해온 한국은행으로서는 고민이 깊어졌다. 우리나라 경기를 살리기위해서는 금리인하가 필요한 데 미국이 더이상 금리인하를 하지 않는 상태에서 우리만 금리인하를 할 경우 한국과 미국의 금리격차가 더 벌어져 외국인 자금이탈이라는 부작용이 생길 수 있기 때문이다.

미국에서는 금리인하 시대가 가고 이제 금리인상이 거론되고 있다. 미국이 금리를 인상하면 한국과 미국의 금리격차는 더 벌어질 수 있다.

제롬 파월 미국 연방준비제도 의장은 12일(한국시각) 기준금리 동결을 발표한 후 가진 기자회견에서 "현재의 상황에서는 금리 인상의 필요성이 그리 크지 않다"라고 밝혔다.

첫 일성이 금리인상에 관한 언급이다. 당장 금리인상을 한다는 것은 아니지만 그만큼 파월의 이날 발언은 연준이 금리인상 압력을 많이 받고 있음을 보여준다고 하겠다.

미국 연준이 금리정책을 펼 때 기준으로 삼는 지수는 PCE 물가지수이다. 이 PCE 물가지수가 2% 넘어가지 않도록 하겠다는 것이 연준의 기본정책이다 . 문제는 이 지수가 이미 2%선에 거의 육박했다는 사실이다. 금리인상이 그리 멀지 않았다는 이야기다.

이에 따라 미국 연준의 금리인상에 대비할 때다.

다음은 연준 기준금리 동결직후 제롬 파월 연준의장 기자회견 모두 발언 전문

December 11, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference Transcript PRELIMINARY

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Remarks

December 11, 2019

CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon everyone. To begin, I would like to say a few words

about Paul Volcker, who as you know passed away earlier this week. Paul Volcker served as

Federal Reserve Chair from 1979 to 1987. He accomplished many things during his long and

distinguished career at the Fed and elsewhere. Of course, he is best known for leading the fight

to tame the double-digit inflation that he inherited as Chair, thus laying the foundation for the

prosperity and price stability we enjoy today. But what is perhaps most admirable about him—

more than his many accomplishments—was his character. He believed that there is no higher

calling than public service, and he dedicated the lion’s share of his life to it. With courage,

integrity, and tenacity, he always pursued the policies that he believed would ultimately benefit

all Americans. My colleagues and I continue to draw inspiration from his example.

Turning to today’s meeting, my colleagues and I decided to leave our policy rate

unchanged, after lowering it a total of 3/4 of a percentage point at the previous three meetings.

As always, we base our decisions on judgment of how best to achieve the goals Congress has

given us—maximum employment and price stability. Our economic outlook remains a favorable

one despite global developments and ongoing risks. With our decisions through the course of the

past year, we believe that monetary policy is well positioned to serve the American people by

supporting continued economic growth, a strong job market, and inflation near our symmetric

2 percent goal.

The economic expansion is in its 11th year, the longest on record. Household spending

has been strong—supported by a healthy job market, rising incomes, and solid consumer

confidence. In contrast, business investment and exports remain weak, and manufacturing

output has declined over the past year. As has been the case for some time, sluggish growth

December 11, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference Transcript PRELIMINARY

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abroad and trade developments have been weighing on those sectors. Even so, the overall

economy has been growing moderately. And with a strong household sector and supportive

monetary and financial conditions, we expect moderate growth to continue. As seen from

FOMC participants’ most recent projections, the median expectation for real GDP growth slows

slightly over the next few years but remains near 2 percent.

The unemployment rate has been near half-century lows for well more than a year, and

the pace of job gains remains solid. Participation in the labor force by people in their prime

working years, ages 25 through 54, has been increasing. And wages have been rising,

particularly for lower-paying jobs. People who live and work in low- and middle-income

communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now finding new

opportunities. Employment gains have been broad-based across all racial and ethnic groups and

all levels of education. These developments underscore for us the importance of sustaining the

expansion so that the strong job market reaches more of those left behind. We expect the job

market to remain strong. The median of participants’ projections for the unemployment rate

remains below 4 percent over the next several years.

Inflation continues to run below our symmetric 2 percent objective. Over the 12 months

through October, total PCE inflation was 1.3 percent and core inflation, which excludes volatile

food and energy prices and is a better indicator of future inflation, was 1.6 percent. While low

and stable inflation is certainly a good thing, inflation that runs persistently below our objective

can lead to an unhealthy dynamic in which longer-term inflation expectations drift down, pulling

actual inflation even lower. In turn, interest rates would be lower as well and closer to their

effective lower bound. As a result, the scope for interest rate reductions to support the economy

in a future downturn would be diminished, resulting in worse economic outcomes for American

December 11, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference Transcript PRELIMINARY

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families and businesses. Against the backdrop of a strong economy and supportive monetary

policy, we expect inflation will rise to 2 percent. The median of participants’ projections rises to

1.9 percent next year and 2 percent in 2021. We are strongly committed to achieving our

symmetric 2 percent inflation goal.

Over the course of the past year, our views about the path of interest rates that would best

achieve our employment and inflation objectives changed significantly, as the economy faced

some important challenges from weaker global growth and trade developments. As the year

progressed, we adjusted the stance of monetary policy to cushion the economy from these

developments and to provide some insurance against the associated risks. In addition, inflation

pressures were unexpectedly muted, strengthening the case for a more supportive stance of

policy. Rather than modestly increasing the target rate for the federal funds rate this year as

seemed appropriate a year ago, we reduced it by 3/4 percentage point. This shift has helped

support the economy and has kept the outlook on track. The medians of participants’ projections

for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation are little changed from a year ago,

aside from a lower inflation projection for 2019. Of course, that is the function of monetary

policy—to adjust interest rates to promote employment and price stability in response to forces

acting on the economy.

We believe that the current stance of monetary policy will support sustained growth, a

strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective. As long as incoming

information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance

of monetary policy likely will remain appropriate. Looking ahead, we will be monitoring the

effects of our recent policy actions, along with other information bearing on the outlook, as we

assess the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate. Of course, if

December 11, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference Transcript PRELIMINARY

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developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond

accordingly. Policy is not on a preset course.

Finally, I wanted to note that we have been purchasing Treasury bills and conducting

repurchase operations consistent with the plan we announced in December. These technical

operations are aimed at maintaining an ample level of reserves and addressing money market

pressures that could adversely affect the implementation of monetary policy. Our operations

have gone well so far; pressures in money markets over recent weeks have been subdued. To

address possible pressures in money markets over the year-end, we have been conducting term

repo operations spanning year-end. We stand ready to adjust the details of our operations as

appropriate to keep the federal funds rate in the target range.

Thank you, and I will be happy to take your questions.


김대호 글로벌이코노믹 연구소장 tiger8280@g-enews.com