당초 발표한 잠정치 1.5%보다 0.6%포인트 더 높아진 것이다.
미국의 1분기 성장률은 0.6%였다. 1분기에는 추운 날씨와 서부 항만 파업으로 일시적 침체를 겪었다.
2분기는 3.9%이다. 1분기의 이상 하락에 따른 반등 즉 기저효과가 작용한 고도성장이다.
이러한 추세를 감안하면 3분기의 2.1% 성장은 과하지도 않고 부족하지도 않은 매우 안정적이면서도 건실한 결과로 볼 수 있다.
미국은 지금 성장률이 너무 높으면 금리인상이 우려되고 성장률이 너무 낮으면 주가 폭락이 우려되는 매우 예민한 상황을 맞고 있다.
3분기 2.1% 성장률은 경기 과열이나 침체의 우려를 동시에 씻어내는 적어도 지금 상황에서는 가장 적절한 범위의 안정적 수준으로 보인다.
연준은 그동안 글로벌 금융위기라는 비상 상황에서 0% 금리를 유지해 왔다.
그 양적완화 덕에 미국 경제가 살아났다.
금리 0%는 사실 비정상이다. 이 비정상을 이제는 정상으로 돌릴 시점이 왔다.
2.1%의 성장률은 연준이 금리인상을 할 수 있는 충분한 여건이다.
그렇다고 대폭 올려야 하는 상황은 아니다.
미국의 잠재성장률은 1.5~2.0% 내외로 추정하고 있다.
2.1%는 이보다 조금 높은 것이다.
이론적으로 잠재성장률 범위 내에서의 성장은 물가상승을 유발하지 않는다고 되어 있다.
금리를 올리더라도 조금만 조정하면 된다는 해석이 가능하다
이론적으로 볼 때 금리 인상폭이 그리 높지 않다.
3분기 GDP에서는 물가지수도 안정적으로 나왔다.
GDP로 구하는 물가지수인 개인소비지출(PCE) 증가율은 3분기 1.3%이다.
2분기의 2.2%보다 낮아졌다.
PCE는 연준이 금리를 조정할 때 기준으로 삼는 중심지표다.
이 PCE가 2% 이상 오르지 못하도록 하겠다는 것이 연준의 목표다.
이 지표가 1.3% 떨어짐으로써 연준 입장에서는 물가 때문에 당장 금리를 큰 폭으로 조정해야 부담에서는 벗어났다.
종합할 때 이번 3분기 지표는 12월 금리인상 가능성을 더높여주면서도 인상폭은 그리 크지 않도록 하는 두 가지 의미를 동시에 담고 있다고 하겠다.
이 경우 뉴욕 증시에도 큰 부담을 주지는 않을 것으로 보인다 .
코스피도 물론 이 영향을 받을 전망이다.
다음은 미국 상무부의 3분기 GDP 발표문 전문
Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP............................... 1.5 2.1
Current-dollar GDP..................... 2.7 3.4
Real GDI............................... --- 3.1
Average of GDP and GDI................. --- 2.6
Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.3 1.3
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2015 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Third Quarter 2015 (Preliminary Estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s
economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price
changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the
"second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP
increased 3.9 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for
the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.5
percent. With the second estimate for the third quarter, the decrease in private inventory investment was
smaller than previously estimated (see "Revisions" on page 2).
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government
spending, residential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative contribution
from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private
inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, in state
and local government spending, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a
deceleration in imports.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) -- the value of the costs incurred and the incomes earned in
the production of goods and services in the nation’s economy -- increased 3.1 percent in the third
quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent (revised) in the second. The average of real GDP and
real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI,
increased 2.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent (revised) in the
second.
_____
NOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are
in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site.
_____
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in
the second.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.2 percent.
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s
economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 3.4 percent, or
$151.0 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $18,064.7 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar
GDP increased 6.1 percent, or $264.4 billion.
Revisions
The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected an upward revision to
private inventory investment that was partly offset by downward revisions to PCE and to exports. For
information on revisions, see "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP............................... 1.5 2.1
Current-dollar GDP..................... 2.7 3.4
Real GDI............................... --- 3.1
Average of GDP and GDI................. --- 2.6
Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.3 1.3
For the second quarter of 2015, real GDI was revised up 1.5 percentage points, from 0.7 percent
to 2.2 percent, primarily reflecting an upward revision to private wages and salaries based on newly
available second-quarter tabulations from the BLS quarterly census of employment and wages.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and
capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) decreased $22.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an
increase of $70.4 billion in the second.
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $8.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast
to an increase of $34.6 billion in the second. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased
$15.8 billion, compared with an increase of $24.3 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits
decreased $30.0 billion, in contrast to an increase of $11.4 billion. This measure is calculated as the
difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the third
quarter, receipts decreased $7.2 billion, and payments increased $22.7 billion.
Taxes on corporate income increased $2.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase
of $31.3 billion in the second. Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj decreased $25.0 billion, in contrast
to an increase of $39.2 billion.
Dividends increased $27.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $1.2 billion
in the second. Undistributed profits decreased $52.2 billion, in contrast to an increase of $38.0 billion.
Net cash flow with IVA -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- decreased $34.9
billion, in contrast to an increase of $48.1 billion.
The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of
fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in
the national income and product accounts. The IVA increased $35.3 billion in the third quarter, in
contrast to a decrease of $78.7 billion in the second. The CCAdj decreased $1.4 billion, in contrast to an
increase of $7.7 billion.
Gross value added of nonfinancial domestic corporate business
Real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased in the third quarter. Unit profits
from current production (profits per unit of real value added) were unchanged, reflecting an increase in
unit prices and a decrease in unit nonlabor costs that were offset by an increase in unit labor costs.
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