10월에는 기준금리를 내렸지만 그 이후에는 금리인하에 신중을 기하겠다는 것이다.
파월은 이어 "지금 경제 상황에 대한 들어오는 정보만으로 판단하면 대체로 연준의 전망과 일관되게 유지되는 한 현재의 통화정책 기조가 적절히 유지될 것으로 보인다"고 밝혔다. 현 상태에서 최적의 정책이라는 스스로의 평가이다. 그러면서 동안 유지해오던 " 확장을 유지하기 위해 적절히 대응할 것"이라는 그동안의 연준 문구를 삭제했다. 이는 향후 기준금리 인하에 매우 신중하겠다는 취지로 보인다.
파월 의장은 또 인플레이션이 연준의 목표치(2%)를 지속적으로 충족시키지 않는 한 당장 기준금리 인상에도 나서지 않겠다는 점을 분명히 했다. 특히 "인플레이션 우려를 시정하기 위한 기준금리 인상을 위해서는 정말 상당하고, 지속적인 인플레이션 상승을 목도할 필요가 있다"고 말했다.
다음은 파월의장 기자회견 전문
October 30, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY
Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Remarks
My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I are dedicated to serving the American people.
We do this by steadfastly pursuing the goals that Congress has given us—maximum employment
and stable prices. We are committed to making the best decisions we can, based on facts and
objective analysis. Today, we decided to lower the interest rates for the third time this year. We
took this step to help keep the U.S. economy strong in the face of global developments and to
provide some insurance against ongoing risks. As I will explain shortly, the policy adjustments
we have made since last year are providing—and will continue to provide—meaningful support
to the economy. We believe that monetary policy is in a good place.
The U.S. economy is in its 11th year of expansion, and the baseline outlook remains
favorable. The overall economy is growing at a moderate rate. Household spending continues to
be strong—supported by a healthy job market, rising incomes, and solid consumer confidence.
In contrast, business investment and exports remain weak, and manufacturing output has
declined over the past year. Sluggish growth abroad and trade developments have been
weighing on those sectors. Looking ahead, we continue to expect the economy to expand at a
moderate rate, reflecting solid household spending and supportive financial conditions.
The job market remains strong. The unemployment rate has been near half-century lows
for a year and a half. The pace of job gains has eased this year, but has remained solid. We had
expected some slowing after last year’s strong pace. Participation in the labor force by people in
their prime working years has been increasing. And wages have been rising, particularly for
lower-paying jobs. People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities tell us
that many who have struggled to find work are now getting opportunities to add new and better
October 30, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY
Page 2 of 4
chapters to their lives. This underscores for us the importance of sustaining the expansion so that
the strong job market reaches more of those left behind.
Inflation continues to run below our symmetric 2 percent objective. Over the 12 months
through August, total PCE inflation was 1.4 percent and core inflation was 1.8 percent. Inflation
pressures remain muted, and indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are at the lower end
of their historic ranges. We are mindful that continued below-target inflation could lead to an
unwelcome downward slide in long-term inflation expectations. However, against the backdrop
of a strong economy and supportive monetary policy, we expect inflation will rise to 2 percent.
Overall, we continue to see sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor
market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective as most likely. While this has been
our outlook for quite some time, our views about the path of interest rates that will best achieve
these outcomes have changed significantly over the past year. As I mentioned, weakness in
global growth and trade developments have weighed on the economy and pose ongoing risks.
These factors, in conjunction with muted inflation pressures, have led us to lower our assessment
of the appropriate level of the federal funds rate over the past year. In both July and September,
we reduced the target rate for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, and we did so again
today, bringing the range to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.
The policy adjustments we have made to date will continue to provide significant support
for the economy. Since monetary policy operates with a lag, the full effects of these adjustments
on economic growth, the job market, and inflation will be realized over time. We see the current
stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about
the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong
labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective. We believe monetary policy
October 30, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY
Page 3 of 4
is in a good place to achieve these outcomes. Looking ahead, we will be monitoring the effects
of our policy actions, along with other information bearing on the outlook, as we assess the
appropriate path of the target range for the fed funds rate. Of course, if developments emerge
that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly. Policy is not
on a preset course.
Let me end with a few words about our technical monetary policy operations. In January,
we made the key decision to continue to implement monetary policy in an ample-reserves
regime. In that operating framework, we control the federal funds rate primarily by setting our
administered rates, not through frequent interventions to actively manage the supply of reserves.
In the transition to the efficient and effective level of reserves in this regime, we slowed the
gradual decline in our balance sheet in March and we stopped it in July.
In response to the funding pressures in money markets that emerged in mid-September,
we concluded that it would be appropriate to maintain over time a level of reserve balances at or
above the level that prevailed in early September of this year. To achieve this ample level, we
announced on October 11 that we would purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter
of next year as well as continue temporary open market operations at least through January.
These actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of monetary
policy as we continue to learn about the appropriate level of reserves. They do not represent a
change in the stance of monetary policy. In particular, our Treasury bill purchases should not be
confused with the large-scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis.
In those programs, we purchased longer-term securities to put downward pressure on longerterm interest rates and ease broader financial conditions. In contrast, increasing the supply of
reserves by purchasing Treasury bills only alters the mix of short-term assets held by the public
October 30, 2019 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY
Page 4 of 4
and should not materially affect demand and supply for longer-term securities or financial
conditions more broadly.
Thank you, I will be happy to take your questions.
파월 발언이후 뉴욕증시에서 스탠더드앤드푸어스(S&P) 500지수는 9.88포인트(0.33%) 오른 3,046.77에 마쳤다. 또 다시 사상 최고치를 기록했다. 다우지수는 115.27포인트(0.43%) 상승한 27,186.69에 마쳤다. 나스닥지수는 27.12포인트(0.33%) 오른 8,303.97에 각각 마감했다.
연준은 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 정례회의에서 기준금리인 연방기금금리(FFR)를 기존 1.75~2.00%에서 1.50~1.75%로 0.25%포인트 내렸다.
뉴욕증시 마감시세
US Market ClosedOct 30,2019
NIKKEI 225 21778.61-106.63 ▼-0.49%
OMXN40 1616.5810.47 ▼0.65%
FTSE100 7330.7824.52 ▼0.34%
NASDAQ 8303.98 27.13 ▲ 0.33%
NASDAQ-100 (NDX) 8083.11 35.6 ▲ 0.44%
Pre-Market (NDX) 8061.92 14.41 ▲ 0.18%
After Hours (NDX) 8118.25 35.14 ▲ 0.43%
다우지수 DJIA 27186.69 115.27 ▲ 0.43%
S&P 500 3046.77 9.88 ▲ 0.33%
Russell 2000 1572.85 -4.23 ▼ 0.27%
김대호 글로벌이코노믹 연구소장 tiger8280@g-enews.com
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